{"punk":6196,"name":"CryptoPunk #6196","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/6196","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/6196.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":3,"attributes":["Luxurious Beard","Knitted Cap","Clown Eyes Blue"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":35.1836,"usd":85253,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":32.1526,"high_eth":38.5003,"low_usd":77908,"high_usd":93289},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.3827,"high_eth":42.1297,"low_usd":71197,"high_usd":102084},"sigma_log":0.0901,"multiple_of_floor":1.1577,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T06:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":35.1836,"usd":85253,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":32.1526,"high_eth":38.5003,"low_usd":77908,"high_usd":93289},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.3827,"high_eth":42.1297,"low_usd":71197,"high_usd":102084},"sigma_log":0.0901,"multiple_of_floor":1.1577,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T06:04:23.000Z","block":26353897,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":51,"stale":false,"label":"as of 06:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T06:04:23.000Z","block":26353897,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":51,"stale":false,"label":"as of 06:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":12.6,"beta":0.1184,"term":"tone3","label":"Skin tone 3 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":66.5},{"pct":-7.8,"beta":-0.081,"term":"attr:Clown Eyes Blue","label":"Clown Eyes Blue","sales_12m":65,"weighted_sales":6.3}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.25,"date":"2019-09-03","block":8477117,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":121,"adjusted_eth":25.325},{"eth":7.5,"date":"2021-02-05","block":11796265,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":195,"adjusted_eth":44.5166},{"eth":27.5,"date":"2021-03-16","block":12046499,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":235,"adjusted_eth":38.074},{"eth":17,"date":"2021-05-13","block":12422913,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":192,"adjusted_eth":35.6297},{"eth":18,"date":"2021-05-27","block":12517983,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":198,"adjusted_eth":36.468},{"eth":18.25,"date":"2021-06-02","block":12556593,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":263,"adjusted_eth":37.4742},{"eth":76,"date":"2021-12-24","block":13869233,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":188,"adjusted_eth":35.5329},{"eth":79.99,"date":"2022-01-18","block":14031689,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":78,"adjusted_eth":40.1867}],"comparables":[{"eth":38,"date":"2026-10-31","punk":2473,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":37.975,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":50.4878,"date":"2025-10-10","punk":9891,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.0318,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":55.99,"date":"2025-08-10","punk":9891,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.3358,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":50,"date":"2025-03-05","punk":8965,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":40.52,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":46,"date":"2024-11-14","punk":4034,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":42.3747,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":40.4,"date":"2026-11-01","punk":7440,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":40.3734,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":37,"date":"2026-11-01","punk":6406,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":36.9757,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":40,"date":"2026-10-29","punk":4202,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":41.9259,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":0.0828,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Luxurious Beard","sales_12m":41},{"attribute":"Knitted Cap","sales_12m":49}],"summary":["Estimate 35.2 ETH (beta), 1σ range 32.2 to 38.5 ETH, 2σ range 29.4 to 42.1 ETH, confidence High, as of 06:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 06:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +13%, Clown Eyes Blue -8%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/6196","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}