{"punk":6197,"name":"CryptoPunk #6197","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/6197","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/6197.svg","type":"Female","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Knitted Cap","Clown Eyes Green"],"attribute_count":2,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-04","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-05T00:20:43.410Z","fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"estimate":{"eth":29.4415,"usd":66939,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":27.834,"high_eth":31.1419,"low_usd":63284,"high_usd":70805},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":26.3143,"high_eth":32.9404,"low_usd":59829,"high_usd":74894},"sigma_log":0.0561,"multiple_of_floor":0.9688,"n1_eth":30.7154,"confidence":"High","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-05T21:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-04","eth":29.054,"usd":66058,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":27.4676,"high_eth":30.732,"low_usd":62451,"high_usd":69873},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":25.9679,"high_eth":32.5068,"low_usd":59041,"high_usd":73908},"sigma_log":0.0561,"multiple_of_floor":0.9688,"n1_eth":30.3111,"confidence":"High","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":29.99,"fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T21:04:35.000Z","block":26351205,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":55,"stale":false,"label":"as of 21:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-04","eth":29.99,"eth_usd":2273.6272778684292,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T21:04:35.000Z","block":26351205,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":55,"stale":false,"label":"as of 21:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Female","date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.4,"public_asks":407,"punk":6263}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Female 2-3","terms":[{"pct":-4.1,"beta":-0.0424,"term":"attr:Clown Eyes Green","label":"Clown Eyes Green","sales_12m":61,"weighted_sales":10}],"backtest":{"cell":"Female 2-3","seen":{"n":839,"cover1":0.634,"cover2":0.871,"bias_pct":-0.6,"within10":0.802,"within25":0.952,"MdALE_pct":4.1},"thin":false,"sigma":0.052,"selection":{"n":1056,"cover1":0.688,"cover2":0.916,"bias_pct":-1.5,"within10":0.841,"within25":0.968,"MdALE_pct":4}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.25,"date":"2019-09-02","block":8472868,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":131,"adjusted_eth":24.9917},{"eth":1.75,"date":"2020-09-14","block":10862415,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":48,"adjusted_eth":27.0528},{"eth":2.29,"date":"2020-09-23","block":10919115,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":48,"adjusted_eth":31.9428},{"eth":13.95,"date":"2021-06-08","block":12596334,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":109,"adjusted_eth":30.4262}],"comparables":[{"eth":48.38,"date":"2025-09-15","punk":6686,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.6347,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":47.77,"date":"2025-06-14","punk":6686,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.1242,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":28.994,"date":"2026-10-30","punk":3364,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.5163,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":28.46,"date":"2026-10-28","punk":3364,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.5514,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":32.7,"date":"2026-09-23","punk":471,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.8433,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":31.98,"date":"2026-09-21","punk":6573,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.9381,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":30.5,"date":"2026-08-31","punk":8154,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.5932,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":50.5,"date":"2026-08-23","punk":5541,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":47.3576,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":-0.0424,"type_multiple":{"sales":442,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0107,"median_multiple":1.0107},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Knitted Cap","sales_12m":49}],"summary":["Estimate 29.4 ETH (beta), 1σ range 27.8 to 31.1 ETH, 2σ range 26.3 to 32.9 ETH, confidence High, as of 21:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 21:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.","Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (442 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Clown Eyes Green -4%.","Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","In the backtest, Female 2-3 sales landed within ±4% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±4.1% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/6197","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}