{"punk":6221,"name":"CryptoPunk #6221","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/6221","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/6221.svg","type":"Female","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Earring","Half Shaved","Cigarette","Green Eye Shadow"],"attribute_count":4,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":29.995,"usd":72680,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":28.3852,"high_eth":31.696,"low_usd":68780,"high_usd":76802},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":26.8619,"high_eth":33.4935,"low_usd":65089,"high_usd":81157},"sigma_log":0.0552,"multiple_of_floor":0.987,"n1_eth":30.6779,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T02:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":29.995,"usd":72680,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":28.3852,"high_eth":31.696,"low_usd":68780,"high_usd":76802},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":26.8619,"high_eth":33.4935,"low_usd":65089,"high_usd":81157},"sigma_log":0.0552,"multiple_of_floor":0.987,"n1_eth":30.6779,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T02:04:23.000Z","block":26352699,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":2,"stale":false,"label":"as of 02:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T02:04:23.000Z","block":26352699,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":2,"stale":false,"label":"as of 02:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Female","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.4,"public_asks":407,"punk":6263}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Female 4+","terms":[{"pct":-2.2,"beta":-0.0225,"term":"attr:Cigarette","label":"Cigarette","sales_12m":110,"weighted_sales":14.2}],"backtest":{"cell":"Female 4+","seen":{"n":135,"cover1":0.6,"cover2":0.815,"bias_pct":-0.9,"within10":0.763,"within25":0.933,"MdALE_pct":4.5},"thin":false,"sigma":0.054,"selection":{"n":177,"cover1":0.712,"cover2":0.921,"bias_pct":-0.5,"within10":0.819,"within25":0.966,"MdALE_pct":3.4}},"own_sales":[{"eth":24.99,"date":"2021-03-21","block":12080694,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":139,"adjusted_eth":36.1813},{"eth":60,"date":"2021-08-06","block":12972181,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":274,"adjusted_eth":37.2122},{"eth":73,"date":"2022-07-14","block":15141832,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":142,"adjusted_eth":28.4675},{"eth":69.69,"date":"2022-07-27","block":15223044,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":532,"adjusted_eth":29.4354},{"eth":66.19,"date":"2022-10-31","block":15870831,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":62,"adjusted_eth":30.1757}],"comparables":[{"eth":52.42,"date":"2025-08-08","punk":714,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.721,"shared_attributes":4},{"eth":36.9,"date":"2025-07-19","punk":714,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":27.3577,"shared_attributes":4},{"eth":35.5,"date":"2025-03-03","punk":714,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.9846,"shared_attributes":4},{"eth":37.5,"date":"2024-11-15","punk":714,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.998,"shared_attributes":4},{"eth":32.42,"date":"2026-09-22","punk":4065,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.3806,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":28.88,"date":"2026-10-30","punk":874,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.8017,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29.38,"date":"2026-09-17","punk":3637,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.0727,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32.05,"date":"2026-08-29","punk":5677,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.5521,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":-0.0225,"type_multiple":{"sales":440,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0095,"median_multiple":1.0095},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Earring","sales_12m":303},{"attribute":"Half Shaved","sales_12m":13},{"attribute":"Green Eye Shadow","sales_12m":32}],"summary":["Estimate 30.0 ETH (beta), 1σ range 28.4 to 31.7 ETH, 2σ range 26.9 to 33.5 ETH, confidence Low, as of 02:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 02:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (440 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Cigarette -2%.","Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","In the backtest, Female 4+ sales landed within ±3.4% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±4.5% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/6221","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}