{"punk":626,"name":"CryptoPunk #626","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/626","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/626.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":2,"attributes":["Earring","Cowboy Hat"],"attribute_count":2,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-04","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-05T00:20:43.410Z","fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"estimate":{"eth":68.7092,"usd":156219,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":46.7705,"high_eth":100.9388,"low_usd":106339,"high_usd":229497},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":31.8367,"high_eth":148.2864,"low_usd":72385,"high_usd":337148},"sigma_log":0.3846,"multiple_of_floor":2.2609,"n1_eth":32.3769,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-04","eth":67.8048,"usd":154163,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":46.1549,"high_eth":99.6102,"low_usd":104939,"high_usd":226476},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":31.4177,"high_eth":146.3346,"low_usd":71432,"high_usd":332710},"sigma_log":0.3846,"multiple_of_floor":2.2609,"n1_eth":31.9507,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":29.99,"fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","block":26351802,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":46,"stale":false,"label":"as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-04","eth":29.99,"eth_usd":2273.6272778684292,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","block":26351802,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":46,"stale":false,"label":"as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.7,"beta":0.0457,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":10,"beta":0.0957,"term":"tone2","label":"Skin tone 2 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":89.3},{"pct":-3.5,"beta":-0.0359,"term":"count2","label":"2 attributes (vs 3)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":102.4},{"pct":-2.4,"beta":-0.0241,"term":"attr:Earring","label":"Earring","sales_12m":306,"weighted_sales":71.1},{"pct":95.6,"beta":0.671,"term":"attr:Cowboy Hat","label":"Cowboy Hat","sales_12m":10,"weighted_sales":2.9}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[],"comparables":[{"eth":78,"date":"2026-05-28","punk":4336,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":73.468,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":80,"date":"2025-05-12","punk":1507,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":52.6834,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":63.25,"date":"2025-04-10","punk":1782,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":44.6322,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":85,"date":"2025-02-04","punk":7585,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":63.8405,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":75,"date":"2025-01-16","punk":1782,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":59.6776,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":68,"date":"2024-12-11","punk":735,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":51.6284,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":64,"date":"2024-12-02","punk":1507,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":43.1996,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":46.969,"date":"2024-11-13","punk":1782,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":42.8276,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.7524,"type_multiple":{"sales":778,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0654,"median_multiple":1.0654},"no_clear_premium":[],"summary":["Estimate 68.7 ETH (beta), 1σ range 46.8 to 101 ETH, 2σ range 31.8 to 148 ETH, confidence Low, as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 23:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (778 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +10%, 2 attributes (vs 3) -4%, Earring -2%, Cowboy Hat +96%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/626","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}