{"punk":6263,"name":"CryptoPunk #6263","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/6263","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/6263.svg","type":"Female","skin_tone":2,"attributes":["Black Lipstick","Straight Hair","Purple Eye Shadow"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":30.7679,"usd":74553,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.2082,"high_eth":32.4108,"low_usd":70774,"high_usd":78534},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.7276,"high_eth":34.1414,"low_usd":67186,"high_usd":82727},"sigma_log":0.052,"multiple_of_floor":1.0124,"n1_eth":30.6779,"confidence":"High","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T01:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.7679,"usd":74553,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.2082,"high_eth":32.4108,"low_usd":70774,"high_usd":78534},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.7276,"high_eth":34.1414,"low_usd":67186,"high_usd":82727},"sigma_log":0.052,"multiple_of_floor":1.0124,"n1_eth":30.6779,"confidence":"High","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T01:04:35.000Z","block":26352400,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":54,"stale":false,"label":"as of 01:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T01:04:35.000Z","block":26352400,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":54,"stale":false,"label":"as of 01:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Female","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.4,"public_asks":407,"punk":6263}},"listing":{"ask_eth":30.4,"ask_usd":67968,"z":-0.23,"z_text":"0.2σ below the estimate","listed_since":"2026-10-16T18:10:47.000Z","days_listed":20},"argument":{"cell":"Female 2-3","terms":[{"pct":2.8,"beta":0.0274,"term":"tone2","label":"Skin tone 2 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":52.7},{"pct":-2.4,"beta":-0.0245,"term":"attr:Purple Eye Shadow","label":"Purple Eye Shadow","sales_12m":35,"weighted_sales":15.4}],"backtest":{"cell":"Female 2-3","seen":{"n":839,"cover1":0.634,"cover2":0.871,"bias_pct":-0.6,"within10":0.802,"within25":0.952,"MdALE_pct":4.1},"thin":false,"sigma":0.052,"selection":{"n":1056,"cover1":0.688,"cover2":0.916,"bias_pct":-1.5,"within10":0.841,"within25":0.968,"MdALE_pct":4}},"own_sales":[{"eth":21.99,"date":"2021-07-06","block":12775763,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":17,"adjusted_eth":37.1265},{"eth":67,"date":"2023-01-15","block":16414116,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":32,"adjusted_eth":30.4354},{"eth":66.79,"date":"2023-01-21","block":16457789,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":133,"adjusted_eth":30.4356},{"eth":49.48,"date":"2023-05-24","block":17330319,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":157,"adjusted_eth":30.1342},{"eth":54.95,"date":"2023-11-10","block":18537897,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":196,"adjusted_eth":28.3039},{"eth":32.42,"date":"2026-09-22","block":26035969,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":1321,"adjusted_eth":30.3806},{"eth":31,"date":"2026-10-08","block":26150896,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":2,"adjusted_eth":28.7661}],"comparables":[{"eth":31.98,"date":"2026-09-21","punk":6573,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.3507,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32.23,"date":"2026-07-25","punk":1583,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.2119,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.43,"date":"2026-07-02","punk":6573,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.8767,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33,"date":"2026-05-17","punk":6573,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.1615,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32,"date":"2026-05-16","punk":8497,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.6213,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.5,"date":"2026-05-04","punk":6223,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.93,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29.6,"date":"2026-02-26","punk":5055,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.1456,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32,"date":"2026-02-20","punk":6547,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.6336,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.0029,"type_multiple":{"sales":440,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0095,"median_multiple":1.0095},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Black Lipstick","sales_12m":95},{"attribute":"Straight Hair","sales_12m":33}],"summary":["Estimate 30.8 ETH (beta), 1σ range 29.2 to 32.4 ETH, 2σ range 27.7 to 34.1 ETH, confidence High, as of 01:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 01:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (440 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +3%, Purple Eye Shadow -2%.","Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","In the backtest, Female 2-3 sales landed within ±4% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±4.1% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/6263","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}