{"punk":627,"name":"CryptoPunk #627","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/627","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/627.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":4,"attributes":["Hoodie"],"attribute_count":1,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-04","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-05T00:20:43.410Z","fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"estimate":{"eth":157.5442,"usd":358197,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":69.5075,"high_eth":357.0868,"low_usd":158034,"high_usd":811882},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.6662,"high_eth":809.366,"low_usd":69724,"high_usd":1840197},"sigma_log":0.8183,"multiple_of_floor":5.1841,"n1_eth":32.3769,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 0-1","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-04","eth":155.4706,"usd":353482,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":68.5926,"high_eth":352.3867,"low_usd":155954,"high_usd":801196},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.2626,"high_eth":798.7129,"low_usd":68806,"high_usd":1815975},"sigma_log":0.8183,"multiple_of_floor":5.1841,"n1_eth":31.9507,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 0-1","floor_eth":29.99,"fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","block":26351802,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":45,"stale":false,"label":"as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-04","eth":29.99,"eth_usd":2273.6272778684292,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","block":26351802,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":45,"stale":false,"label":"as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 0-1","terms":[{"pct":4.7,"beta":0.0457,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":19.8,"beta":0.1805,"term":"tone4","label":"Skin tone 4 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":25.9},{"pct":15,"beta":0.1394,"term":"count1","label":"1 attribute (vs 3)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":3.6},{"pct":237.6,"beta":1.2167,"term":"attr:Hoodie","label":"Hoodie","sales_12m":20,"weighted_sales":7.1}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 0-1","seen":{"n":16,"cover1":0.5,"cover2":0.625,"bias_pct":27.5,"within10":0.25,"within25":0.5,"MdALE_pct":27.5},"thin":true,"sigma":0.209,"selection":{"n":35,"cover1":0.714,"cover2":0.914,"bias_pct":6.6,"within10":0.571,"within25":0.714,"MdALE_pct":7.8}},"own_sales":[{"eth":1.0101,"date":"2017-07-06","block":3981262,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":22,"adjusted_eth":126.2204},{"eth":1.5,"date":"2017-07-13","block":4015202,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":30,"adjusted_eth":121.5811},{"eth":2.5,"date":"2020-04-26","block":9949113,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":99,"adjusted_eth":144.1827},{"eth":130,"date":"2021-04-27","block":12323760,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":207,"adjusted_eth":177.3749},{"eth":250,"date":"2024-06-25","block":20165641,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":172,"adjusted_eth":281.9669}],"comparables":[{"eth":145,"date":"2026-10-20","punk":7779,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":139.0646,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":117,"date":"2026-08-24","punk":9799,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":108.1637,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":125,"date":"2026-08-24","punk":8359,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":115.5595,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":115,"date":"2026-08-19","punk":9799,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":107.1071,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":140,"date":"2026-08-17","punk":3298,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":130.5129,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":269,"date":"2026-08-05","punk":2311,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":254.4893,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":140,"date":"2026-07-03","punk":7360,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":129.4266,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":278,"date":"2026-06-26","punk":4441,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":260.6196,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":1.5823,"type_multiple":{"sales":778,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0654,"median_multiple":1.0654},"no_clear_premium":[],"summary":["Estimate 158 ETH (beta), 1σ range 69.5 to 357 ETH, 2σ range 30.7 to 809 ETH, confidence Low, as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 23:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (778 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 4 (vs 1) +20%, 1 attribute (vs 3) +15%, Hoodie +238%.","In the backtest, Male 0-1 sales landed within ±7.8% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±27.5% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/627","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}