{"punk":6278,"name":"CryptoPunk #6278","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/6278","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/6278.svg","type":"Female","skin_tone":2,"attributes":["Messy Hair","Cigarette","Nerd Glasses"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":30.8283,"usd":74699,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.2645,"high_eth":32.4757,"low_usd":70910,"high_usd":78691},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.7801,"high_eth":34.211,"low_usd":67313,"high_usd":82896},"sigma_log":0.0521,"multiple_of_floor":1.0144,"n1_eth":30.6779,"confidence":"High","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T12:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.8283,"usd":74699,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.2645,"high_eth":32.4757,"low_usd":70910,"high_usd":78691},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.7801,"high_eth":34.211,"low_usd":67313,"high_usd":82896},"sigma_log":0.0521,"multiple_of_floor":1.0144,"n1_eth":30.6779,"confidence":"High","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T12:04:23.000Z","block":26355693,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1161,"age_minutes":46,"stale":false,"label":"as of 12:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T12:04:23.000Z","block":26355693,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1161,"age_minutes":46,"stale":false,"label":"as of 12:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Female","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.4,"public_asks":405,"punk":6263}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Female 2-3","terms":[{"pct":2.8,"beta":0.0274,"term":"tone2","label":"Skin tone 2 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":52.7},{"pct":-2.2,"beta":-0.0225,"term":"attr:Cigarette","label":"Cigarette","sales_12m":110,"weighted_sales":14.2}],"backtest":{"cell":"Female 2-3","seen":{"n":839,"cover1":0.634,"cover2":0.871,"bias_pct":-0.6,"within10":0.802,"within25":0.952,"MdALE_pct":4.1},"thin":false,"sigma":0.052,"selection":{"n":1056,"cover1":0.688,"cover2":0.916,"bias_pct":-1.5,"within10":0.841,"within25":0.968,"MdALE_pct":4}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.1,"date":"2017-11-15","block":4558985,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":11,"adjusted_eth":33.7667},{"eth":27,"date":"2021-02-23","block":11911492,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":248,"adjusted_eth":35.0654},{"eth":27.5,"date":"2021-02-26","block":11932964,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":118,"adjusted_eth":39.7964}],"comparables":[{"eth":50,"date":"2026-10-06","punk":2651,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":46.1854,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":38.69,"date":"2026-09-23","punk":9310,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.582,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.2,"date":"2026-09-21","punk":9310,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.6057,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.5,"date":"2025-11-19","punk":4700,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.0162,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":38.8,"date":"2025-10-26","punk":5869,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.2342,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":52.5,"date":"2025-08-05","punk":7155,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.9801,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":50.5,"date":"2025-08-04","punk":7155,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":29.7999,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":52.99,"date":"2025-08-02","punk":7104,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.8271,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.0049,"type_multiple":{"sales":440,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0095,"median_multiple":1.0095},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Messy Hair","sales_12m":48},{"attribute":"Nerd Glasses","sales_12m":64}],"summary":["Estimate 30.8 ETH (beta), 1σ range 29.3 to 32.5 ETH, 2σ range 27.8 to 34.2 ETH, confidence High, as of 12:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 12:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (440 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +3%, Cigarette -2%.","Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","In the backtest, Female 2-3 sales landed within ±4% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±4.1% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/6278","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}