{"punk":6281,"name":"CryptoPunk #6281","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/6281","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/6281.svg","type":"Female","skin_tone":2,"attributes":["Black Lipstick","Dark Hair","Nerd Glasses"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-04","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-05T00:20:43.410Z","fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"estimate":{"eth":31.5687,"usd":71775,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.916,"high_eth":33.3128,"low_usd":68018,"high_usd":75741},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":28.3497,"high_eth":35.1533,"low_usd":64457,"high_usd":79925},"sigma_log":0.0538,"multiple_of_floor":1.0388,"n1_eth":30.7154,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-05T22:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-04","eth":31.1532,"usd":70831,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.5222,"high_eth":32.8743,"low_usd":67122,"high_usd":74744},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.9766,"high_eth":34.6906,"low_usd":63608,"high_usd":78873},"sigma_log":0.0538,"multiple_of_floor":1.0388,"n1_eth":30.3111,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":29.99,"fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T22:04:35.000Z","block":26351503,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":37,"stale":false,"label":"as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-04","eth":29.99,"eth_usd":2273.6272778684292,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T22:04:35.000Z","block":26351503,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":37,"stale":false,"label":"as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Female","date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.4,"public_asks":407,"punk":6263}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Female 2-3","terms":[{"pct":2.8,"beta":0.0274,"term":"tone2","label":"Skin tone 2 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":53.2}],"backtest":{"cell":"Female 2-3","seen":{"n":839,"cover1":0.634,"cover2":0.871,"bias_pct":-0.6,"within10":0.802,"within25":0.952,"MdALE_pct":4.1},"thin":false,"sigma":0.052,"selection":{"n":1056,"cover1":0.688,"cover2":0.916,"bias_pct":-1.5,"within10":0.841,"within25":0.968,"MdALE_pct":4}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.25,"date":"2019-09-02","block":8472868,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":125,"adjusted_eth":24.9917},{"eth":0.5,"date":"2020-01-01","block":9197333,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":111,"adjusted_eth":34.8721},{"eth":0.89,"date":"2020-01-16","block":9290605,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":37,"adjusted_eth":46.0191},{"eth":7.5,"date":"2021-01-24","block":11718641,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":272,"adjusted_eth":52.066},{"eth":29.45,"date":"2021-03-19","block":12070221,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":264,"adjusted_eth":42.0774},{"eth":20,"date":"2021-07-13","block":12815854,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":110,"adjusted_eth":31.5684},{"eth":21,"date":"2021-07-14","block":12827926,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":4,"adjusted_eth":32.1485},{"eth":71,"date":"2023-03-18","block":16855505,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":220,"adjusted_eth":28.5926},{"eth":46.87,"date":"2023-11-01","block":18479237,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":358,"adjusted_eth":29.99},{"eth":49.69,"date":"2023-11-06","block":18513791,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":221,"adjusted_eth":30.4558},{"eth":29,"date":"2024-06-05","block":20022207,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":222,"adjusted_eth":29.0387},{"eth":27.25,"date":"2024-06-14","block":20091780,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":49,"adjusted_eth":29.8041}],"comparables":[{"eth":50,"date":"2026-10-06","punk":2651,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":45.5775,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":35,"date":"2026-09-18","punk":9912,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":35.3537,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.7,"date":"2026-02-20","punk":6668,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.9149,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.79,"date":"2026-01-24","punk":9884,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.8859,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30,"date":"2026-01-05","punk":9884,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.602,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29.7,"date":"2026-01-04","punk":9884,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.3476,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":49.6,"date":"2025-10-08","punk":9152,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.6828,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":49.95,"date":"2025-10-04","punk":9884,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.634,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.0274,"type_multiple":{"sales":442,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0107,"median_multiple":1.0107},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Black Lipstick","sales_12m":95},{"attribute":"Dark Hair","sales_12m":17},{"attribute":"Nerd Glasses","sales_12m":64}],"summary":["Estimate 31.6 ETH (beta), 1σ range 29.9 to 33.3 ETH, 2σ range 28.3 to 35.2 ETH, confidence Low, as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 22:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.","Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (442 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +3%.","Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","In the backtest, Female 2-3 sales landed within ±4% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±4.1% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/6281","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}