{"punk":6316,"name":"CryptoPunk #6316","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/6316","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/6316.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":3,"attributes":["Shadow Beard","Messy Hair","3D Glasses"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":67.1288,"usd":162659,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":46.2239,"high_eth":97.4879,"low_usd":112004,"high_usd":236221},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":31.8292,"high_eth":141.5769,"low_usd":77125,"high_usd":343052},"sigma_log":0.3731,"multiple_of_floor":2.2089,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T06:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":67.1288,"usd":162659,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":46.2239,"high_eth":97.4879,"low_usd":112004,"high_usd":236221},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":31.8292,"high_eth":141.5769,"low_usd":77125,"high_usd":343052},"sigma_log":0.3731,"multiple_of_floor":2.2089,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T06:04:23.000Z","block":26353897,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":49,"stale":false,"label":"as of 06:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T06:04:23.000Z","block":26353897,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":49,"stale":false,"label":"as of 06:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":12.6,"beta":0.1184,"term":"tone3","label":"Skin tone 3 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":66.5},{"pct":75.9,"beta":0.565,"term":"attr:3D Glasses","label":"3D Glasses","sales_12m":11,"weighted_sales":3.6}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.1849,"date":"2017-06-28","block":3941185,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":33,"adjusted_eth":37.4584}],"comparables":[{"eth":88.88,"date":"2026-09-22","punk":4746,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":83.289,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":35,"date":"2026-05-25","punk":2648,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.0087,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29.4,"date":"2026-02-04","punk":2956,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.1036,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":28,"date":"2026-02-03","punk":2956,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.5272,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":64,"date":"2025-05-26","punk":8619,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":41.5679,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":62.42,"date":"2025-04-17","punk":8619,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":45.1653,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":48.99,"date":"2025-03-04","punk":8619,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":41.4132,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":58,"date":"2025-03-03","punk":7685,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":48.9889,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.7289,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Shadow Beard","sales_12m":55},{"attribute":"Messy Hair","sales_12m":48}],"summary":["Estimate 67.1 ETH (beta), 1σ range 46.2 to 97.5 ETH, 2σ range 31.8 to 142 ETH, confidence Low, as of 06:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 06:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +13%, 3D Glasses +76%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/6316","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}