{"punk":6354,"name":"CryptoPunk #6354","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/6354","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/6354.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":2,"attributes":["Frown","Earring","Shaved Head"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-04","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-05T00:20:43.410Z","fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"estimate":{"eth":33.75,"usd":76735,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":31.0727,"high_eth":36.6581,"low_usd":70648,"high_usd":83347},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":28.6077,"high_eth":39.8167,"low_usd":65043,"high_usd":90528},"sigma_log":0.0827,"multiple_of_floor":1.1106,"n1_eth":32.3769,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-05T22:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-04","eth":33.3058,"usd":75725,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":30.6637,"high_eth":36.1756,"low_usd":69718,"high_usd":82250},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":28.2312,"high_eth":39.2926,"low_usd":64187,"high_usd":89337},"sigma_log":0.0827,"multiple_of_floor":1.1106,"n1_eth":31.9507,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":29.99,"fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T22:04:35.000Z","block":26351503,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":10,"stale":false,"label":"as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-04","eth":29.99,"eth_usd":2273.6272778684292,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T22:04:35.000Z","block":26351503,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":10,"stale":false,"label":"as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.7,"beta":0.0457,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":10,"beta":0.0957,"term":"tone2","label":"Skin tone 2 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":89.3},{"pct":-2.4,"beta":-0.0241,"term":"attr:Earring","label":"Earring","sales_12m":306,"weighted_sales":71.1},{"pct":-7.3,"beta":-0.0758,"term":"attr:Shaved Head","label":"Shaved Head","sales_12m":42,"weighted_sales":12.6}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.59,"date":"2020-01-17","block":9296377,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":119,"adjusted_eth":27.647},{"eth":1.3,"date":"2020-05-27","block":10146945,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":149,"adjusted_eth":28.2514},{"eth":1.64,"date":"2020-09-14","block":10862408,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":3,"adjusted_eth":25.3524},{"eth":20.5,"date":"2021-04-12","block":12225353,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":155,"adjusted_eth":30.0046},{"eth":19.93,"date":"2021-04-23","block":12297359,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":108,"adjusted_eth":30.3555},{"eth":65,"date":"2022-09-07","block":15492135,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":646,"adjusted_eth":30.0177},{"eth":67.5,"date":"2022-09-17","block":15553701,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":151,"adjusted_eth":32.1321},{"eth":68.5,"date":"2022-11-14","block":15971121,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":209,"adjusted_eth":31.8548}],"comparables":[{"eth":47,"date":"2025-07-20","punk":8812,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.8313,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":43.888,"date":"2024-12-31","punk":8812,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":35.8247,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":32.5,"date":"2024-11-13","punk":8812,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.6344,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":33.5,"date":"2026-08-19","punk":9335,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.2008,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30,"date":"2026-04-23","punk":9335,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.0241,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":39,"date":"2026-04-21","punk":4855,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":41.7718,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30,"date":"2026-04-10","punk":9110,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.1436,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":28.95,"date":"2026-04-08","punk":6188,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.7331,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.0415,"type_multiple":{"sales":778,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0654,"median_multiple":1.0654},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Frown","sales_12m":41}],"summary":["Estimate 33.8 ETH (beta), 1σ range 31.1 to 36.7 ETH, 2σ range 28.6 to 39.8 ETH, confidence High, as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 22:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (778 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +10%, Earring -2%, Shaved Head -7%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/6354","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}