{"punk":6406,"name":"CryptoPunk #6406","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/6406","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/6406.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":4,"attributes":["Luxurious Beard","Shaved Head"],"attribute_count":2,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":36.3046,"usd":87969,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":32.906,"high_eth":40.0543,"low_usd":79734,"high_usd":97055},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.8256,"high_eth":44.1912,"low_usd":72270,"high_usd":107079},"sigma_log":0.0983,"multiple_of_floor":1.1946,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T16:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":36.3046,"usd":87969,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":32.906,"high_eth":40.0543,"low_usd":79734,"high_usd":97055},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.8256,"high_eth":44.1912,"low_usd":72270,"high_usd":107079},"sigma_log":0.0983,"multiple_of_floor":1.1946,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T16:04:23.000Z","block":26356886,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1161,"age_minutes":41,"stale":false,"label":"as of 16:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T16:04:23.000Z","block":26356886,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1161,"age_minutes":41,"stale":false,"label":"as of 16:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":19.8,"beta":0.1805,"term":"tone4","label":"Skin tone 4 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":25.7},{"pct":-3.5,"beta":-0.0359,"term":"count2","label":"2 attributes (vs 3)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":101.6},{"pct":-7.3,"beta":-0.0758,"term":"attr:Shaved Head","label":"Shaved Head","sales_12m":42,"weighted_sales":12.5}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":33,"date":"2021-03-18","block":12065030,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":135,"adjusted_eth":46.3219},{"eth":56,"date":"2021-08-02","block":12942959,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":298,"adjusted_eth":51.1832},{"eth":65,"date":"2021-08-21","block":13069622,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":61,"adjusted_eth":37.9875},{"eth":94,"date":"2021-12-09","block":13773166,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":66,"adjusted_eth":39.8474},{"eth":70,"date":"2022-04-02","block":14506147,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":20,"adjusted_eth":31.2838},{"eth":66.95,"date":"2022-05-10","block":14751245,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":81,"adjusted_eth":38.4251},{"eth":56,"date":"2023-06-24","block":17552076,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":78,"adjusted_eth":34.0368},{"eth":70.5,"date":"2023-11-22","block":18629733,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":154,"adjusted_eth":38.2657},{"eth":40,"date":"2025-02-28","block":21946499,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":129,"adjusted_eth":35.6586},{"eth":51.4949,"date":"2025-07-20","block":22963045,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":130,"adjusted_eth":33.1202},{"eth":39,"date":"2026-02-21","block":24508380,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":210,"adjusted_eth":39.7721},{"eth":37,"date":"2026-11-01","block":26317621,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":37,"adjusted_eth":36.9757}],"comparables":[{"eth":35,"date":"2026-05-22","punk":6694,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.7697,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":28,"date":"2025-12-24","punk":2534,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":31.6445,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":56,"date":"2025-08-14","punk":4577,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":33.5702,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":54.995,"date":"2025-07-29","punk":2534,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.5458,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":53.99,"date":"2025-07-29","punk":2534,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.9693,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":46.69,"date":"2025-07-16","punk":9274,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.044,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":44.99,"date":"2025-07-14","punk":9274,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.3609,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":42.5,"date":"2025-07-14","punk":9274,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":30.5698,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.1142,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Luxurious Beard","sales_12m":41}],"summary":["Estimate 36.3 ETH (beta), 1σ range 32.9 to 40.1 ETH, 2σ range 29.8 to 44.2 ETH, confidence High, as of 16:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 16:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 4 (vs 1) +20%, 2 attributes (vs 3) -4%, Shaved Head -7%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[{"sale_day":"2026-11-01","estimate_date":"2026-10-31","price_eth":37,"est_eth":36.4508,"low1":32.9998,"high1":40.2627,"low2":29.8756,"high2":44.4732,"z":0.15,"confidence":"High","source":"native-buy","prospective":true,"model_version":"est-v2-202610","z_text":"0.2σ above the estimate"}],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/6406","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}