{"punk":6411,"name":"CryptoPunk #6411","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/6411","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/6411.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Earring","Crazy Hair","Clown Eyes Blue"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":30.5095,"usd":73927,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":28.0125,"high_eth":33.2291,"low_usd":67877,"high_usd":80517},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":25.7199,"high_eth":36.1911,"low_usd":62321,"high_usd":87694},"sigma_log":0.0854,"multiple_of_floor":1.0039,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T11:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.5095,"usd":73927,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":28.0125,"high_eth":33.2291,"low_usd":67877,"high_usd":80517},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":25.7199,"high_eth":36.1911,"low_usd":62321,"high_usd":87694},"sigma_log":0.0854,"multiple_of_floor":1.0039,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T11:04:35.000Z","block":26355395,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":30,"stale":false,"label":"as of 11:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T11:04:35.000Z","block":26355395,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":30,"stale":false,"label":"as of 11:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":745,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":-2.4,"beta":-0.0241,"term":"attr:Earring","label":"Earring","sales_12m":303,"weighted_sales":70.6},{"pct":-7.8,"beta":-0.081,"term":"attr:Clown Eyes Blue","label":"Clown Eyes Blue","sales_12m":65,"weighted_sales":6.3}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.3,"date":"2019-09-28","block":8635131,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":41,"adjusted_eth":36.468},{"eth":0.666,"date":"2020-03-07","block":9622825,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":14,"adjusted_eth":33.7329},{"eth":1,"date":"2020-09-06","block":10809652,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":203,"adjusted_eth":34.5341},{"eth":1.95,"date":"2020-09-16","block":10874529,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":217,"adjusted_eth":30.7049},{"eth":4.19,"date":"2020-09-28","block":10949898,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":60,"adjusted_eth":21.9921},{"eth":3.5,"date":"2020-11-05","block":11200239,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":151,"adjusted_eth":30.8304}],"comparables":[{"eth":55,"date":"2026-10-14","punk":8264,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":53.418,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.745,"date":"2026-09-21","punk":2505,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.1203,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32.25,"date":"2026-08-20","punk":2505,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.24,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.5,"date":"2026-06-05","punk":7036,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.9152,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32.89,"date":"2026-05-17","punk":7310,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.061,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":42.69,"date":"2026-05-13","punk":8264,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":43.698,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.9,"date":"2026-05-11","punk":6041,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.6993,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29.86,"date":"2026-05-06","punk":6041,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.2913,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":-0.0597,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Crazy Hair","sales_12m":59}],"summary":["Estimate 30.5 ETH (beta), 1σ range 28.0 to 33.2 ETH, 2σ range 25.7 to 36.2 ETH, confidence High, as of 11:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 11:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Earring -2%, Clown Eyes Blue -8%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/6411","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}