{"punk":643,"name":"CryptoPunk #643","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/643","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/643.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":2,"attributes":["Smile","Mustache","Mohawk"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-04","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-05T00:20:43.410Z","fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"estimate":{"eth":40.3373,"usd":91712,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":35.21,"high_eth":46.2113,"low_usd":80055,"high_usd":105067},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.7344,"high_eth":52.9407,"low_usd":69879,"high_usd":120367},"sigma_log":0.1359,"multiple_of_floor":1.3273,"n1_eth":32.3769,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-05T22:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-04","eth":39.8064,"usd":90505,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":34.7466,"high_eth":45.6031,"low_usd":79001,"high_usd":103684},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.3299,"high_eth":52.2439,"low_usd":68959,"high_usd":118783},"sigma_log":0.1359,"multiple_of_floor":1.3273,"n1_eth":31.9507,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":29.99,"fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T22:04:35.000Z","block":26351503,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":37,"stale":false,"label":"as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-04","eth":29.99,"eth_usd":2273.6272778684292,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T22:04:35.000Z","block":26351503,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":37,"stale":false,"label":"as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":{"ask_eth":100,"ask_usd":242308,"z":6.68,"z_text":"6.7σ above the estimate","listed_since":"2021-12-21T10:25:21.000Z","days_listed":1780},"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.7,"beta":0.0457,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":10,"beta":0.0957,"term":"tone2","label":"Skin tone 2 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":89.3},{"pct":17,"beta":0.1572,"term":"attr:Smile","label":"Smile","sales_12m":21,"weighted_sales":7},{"pct":-7.6,"beta":-0.0788,"term":"attr:Mohawk","label":"Mohawk","sales_12m":75,"weighted_sales":16}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":42.69,"date":"2021-08-05","block":12965805,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":90,"adjusted_eth":28.809},{"eth":54.55,"date":"2021-08-07","block":12976201,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":397,"adjusted_eth":31.5578},{"eth":52.98,"date":"2021-08-22","block":13076344,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":543,"adjusted_eth":29.9787},{"eth":99,"date":"2021-08-27","block":13109422,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":13,"adjusted_eth":32.2718}],"comparables":[{"eth":36.49,"date":"2026-10-02","punk":2529,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.1717,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32.501,"date":"2026-09-27","punk":2529,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.9402,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.2,"date":"2026-09-25","punk":7591,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":29.5538,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":35.8,"date":"2026-09-22","punk":2529,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.1064,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":161.5,"date":"2026-09-04","punk":1839,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":157.5597,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.001,"date":"2026-07-13","punk":2529,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.6508,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29.5,"date":"2025-12-17","punk":2644,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.7791,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":36,"date":"2025-11-28","punk":8594,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":35.1789,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.2198,"type_multiple":{"sales":778,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0654,"median_multiple":1.0654},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Mustache","sales_12m":51}],"summary":["Estimate 40.3 ETH (beta), 1σ range 35.2 to 46.2 ETH, 2σ range 30.7 to 52.9 ETH, confidence Low, as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 22:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (778 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +10%, Smile +17%, Mohawk -8%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/643","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}