{"punk":644,"name":"CryptoPunk #644","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/644","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/644.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":4,"attributes":["Earring","Mohawk Thin"],"attribute_count":2,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":34.1209,"usd":82678,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":31.3673,"high_eth":37.1163,"low_usd":76006,"high_usd":89936},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":28.8359,"high_eth":40.3747,"low_usd":69872,"high_usd":97831},"sigma_log":0.0841,"multiple_of_floor":1.1228,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T00:00:00.000Z","basis":"daily close"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":34.1209,"usd":82678,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":31.3673,"high_eth":37.1163,"low_usd":76006,"high_usd":89936},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":28.8359,"high_eth":40.3747,"low_usd":69872,"high_usd":97831},"sigma_log":0.0841,"multiple_of_floor":1.1228,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"daily close","as_of":"2026-11-06T00:00:00.000Z","block":null,"eth":30.39,"punk":null,"public_asks":null,"age_minutes":39,"stale":false,"label":"as of 00:00 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"daily close","as_of":"2026-11-06T00:00:00.000Z","block":null,"eth":30.39,"punk":null,"public_asks":null,"age_minutes":39,"stale":false,"label":"as of 00:00 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":19.8,"beta":0.1805,"term":"tone4","label":"Skin tone 4 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":25.7},{"pct":-3.5,"beta":-0.0359,"term":"count2","label":"2 attributes (vs 3)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":101.6},{"pct":-2.4,"beta":-0.0241,"term":"attr:Earring","label":"Earring","sales_12m":303,"weighted_sales":70.6},{"pct":-10.8,"beta":-0.1137,"term":"attr:Mohawk Thin","label":"Mohawk Thin","sales_12m":51,"weighted_sales":11}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0,"date":"2023-02-20","block":16666069,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":246,"adjusted_eth":null},{"eth":48.88,"date":"2024-03-18","block":19463384,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":36,"adjusted_eth":30.9536},{"eth":58,"date":"2025-07-29","block":23021218,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":375,"adjusted_eth":33.2695}],"comparables":[{"eth":36,"date":"2026-09-24","punk":192,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.4737,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32.5,"date":"2026-09-04","punk":8375,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.13,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.9,"date":"2026-07-04","punk":5459,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.7577,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29.99,"date":"2026-04-21","punk":5459,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.5499,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30,"date":"2026-03-28","punk":9024,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.7113,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.59,"date":"2026-01-28","punk":9117,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.7335,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":28.69,"date":"2026-01-25","punk":9117,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.1901,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":28.69,"date":"2026-01-21","punk":9117,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.0077,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.0522,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[],"summary":["Estimate 34.1 ETH (beta), 1σ range 31.4 to 37.1 ETH, 2σ range 28.8 to 40.4 ETH, confidence High, as of 00:00 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 4 (vs 1) +20%, 2 attributes (vs 3) -4%, Earring -2%, Mohawk Thin -11%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/644","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}