{"punk":6449,"name":"CryptoPunk #6449","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/6449","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/6449.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":4,"attributes":["Front Beard Dark","Shaved Head"],"attribute_count":2,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-06","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-06 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-07T00:20:34.586Z","fingerprint_sha256":"76e58439a099cc8cd66c5865a3915bee905a819a57c55e8ad375b9f5abdc46a1"},"estimate":{"eth":33.7005,"usd":75347,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":31.0335,"high_eth":36.5968,"low_usd":69384,"high_usd":81822},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":28.5775,"high_eth":39.7419,"low_usd":63893,"high_usd":88854},"sigma_log":0.0824,"multiple_of_floor":1.1089,"n1_eth":32.3833,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-07T06:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":33.7005,"usd":75347,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":31.0335,"high_eth":36.5968,"low_usd":69384,"high_usd":81822},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":28.5775,"high_eth":39.7419,"low_usd":63893,"high_usd":88854},"sigma_log":0.0824,"multiple_of_floor":1.1089,"n1_eth":32.3833,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"76e58439a099cc8cd66c5865a3915bee905a819a57c55e8ad375b9f5abdc46a1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-07T06:04:35.000Z","block":26361068,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1161,"age_minutes":10,"stale":false,"label":"as of 06:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2235.7745744284666,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-07","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-07T06:04:35.000Z","block":26361068,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1161,"age_minutes":10,"stale":false,"label":"as of 06:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-07","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.5,"beta":0.044,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":19.9,"beta":0.1819,"term":"tone4","label":"Skin tone 4 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":25.5},{"pct":-3.4,"beta":-0.035,"term":"count2","label":"2 attributes (vs 3)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":100.8},{"pct":-7.2,"beta":-0.0752,"term":"attr:Front Beard Dark","label":"Front Beard Dark","sales_12m":35,"weighted_sales":13.2},{"pct":-7.3,"beta":-0.0758,"term":"attr:Shaved Head","label":"Shaved Head","sales_12m":42,"weighted_sales":12.4}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":94.99,"date":"2021-08-27","block":13109713,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":114,"adjusted_eth":31.3777},{"eth":118.79,"date":"2021-08-28","block":13112568,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":178,"adjusted_eth":26.2172}],"comparables":[{"eth":28.95,"date":"2026-04-08","punk":6188,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.143,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":28.29,"date":"2026-04-02","punk":6188,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.2744,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":45.69,"date":"2025-09-14","punk":1863,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":28.7062,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30,"date":"2026-11-02","punk":3391,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.9803,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":37,"date":"2026-11-01","punk":6406,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":36.9757,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":30.499,"date":"2026-10-27","punk":9176,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.399,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":30.4,"date":"2026-10-15","punk":5098,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.8114,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":31.31,"date":"2026-10-08","punk":5098,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.0538,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":0.0399,"type_multiple":{"sales":773,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0656,"median_multiple":1.0656},"no_clear_premium":[],"summary":["Estimate 33.7 ETH (beta), 1σ range 31.0 to 36.6 ETH, 2σ range 28.6 to 39.7 ETH, confidence High, as of 06:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-06).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 06:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-06.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (773 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 4 (vs 1) +20%, 2 attributes (vs 3) -3%, Front Beard Dark -7%, Shaved Head -7%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/6449","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}