{"punk":6459,"name":"CryptoPunk #6459","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/6459","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/6459.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Normal Beard Black","Top Hat","VR"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":54.0537,"usd":130977,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":41.3327,"high_eth":70.6897,"low_usd":100153,"high_usd":171287},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":31.6055,"high_eth":92.4459,"low_usd":76583,"high_usd":224004},"sigma_log":0.2683,"multiple_of_floor":1.7787,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T06:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":54.0537,"usd":130977,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":41.3327,"high_eth":70.6897,"low_usd":100153,"high_usd":171287},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":31.6055,"high_eth":92.4459,"low_usd":76583,"high_usd":224004},"sigma_log":0.2683,"multiple_of_floor":1.7787,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T06:04:23.000Z","block":26353897,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":43,"stale":false,"label":"as of 06:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T06:04:23.000Z","block":26353897,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":43,"stale":false,"label":"as of 06:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":{"ask_eth":420.69,"ask_usd":940568,"z":7.65,"z_text":"7.6σ above the estimate","listed_since":"2022-10-20T19:57:47.000Z","days_listed":1477},"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":30.2,"beta":0.2639,"term":"attr:Top Hat","label":"Top Hat","sales_12m":6,"weighted_sales":1.8},{"pct":22.5,"beta":0.2029,"term":"attr:VR","label":"VR","sales_12m":24,"weighted_sales":3.6}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":13,"date":"2021-01-19","block":11683549,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":53,"adjusted_eth":94.741},{"eth":150,"date":"2021-08-17","block":13044297,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":15,"adjusted_eth":108.5357},{"eth":225,"date":"2022-04-26","block":14662268,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":54,"adjusted_eth":110.3753}],"comparables":[{"eth":46.25,"date":"2026-02-23","punk":9762,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":47.0709,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":58.99,"date":"2025-07-26","punk":9762,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":35.5062,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":58.499,"date":"2025-07-25","punk":7820,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.1947,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":125,"date":"2025-05-02","punk":2892,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":86.4531,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":76,"date":"2025-03-09","punk":638,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":60.0687,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.99,"date":"2026-11-02","punk":9585,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.9696,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":29.35,"date":"2026-10-23","punk":8427,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.7725,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":35.9,"date":"2026-10-09","punk":8159,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.646,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":0.5122,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Normal Beard Black","sales_12m":21}],"summary":["Estimate 54.1 ETH (beta), 1σ range 41.3 to 70.7 ETH, 2σ range 31.6 to 92.4 ETH, confidence Low, as of 06:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 06:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Top Hat +30%, VR +23%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/6459","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}