{"punk":6485,"name":"CryptoPunk #6485","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/6485","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/6485.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":3,"attributes":["Normal Beard","Vampire Hair"],"attribute_count":2,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":32.9427,"usd":79823,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":30.3962,"high_eth":35.7026,"low_usd":73652,"high_usd":86510},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":28.0466,"high_eth":38.6936,"low_usd":67959,"high_usd":93758},"sigma_log":0.0805,"multiple_of_floor":1.084,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T01:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":32.9427,"usd":79823,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":30.3962,"high_eth":35.7026,"low_usd":73652,"high_usd":86510},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":28.0466,"high_eth":38.6936,"low_usd":67959,"high_usd":93758},"sigma_log":0.0805,"multiple_of_floor":1.084,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T01:04:35.000Z","block":26352400,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":53,"stale":false,"label":"as of 01:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T01:04:35.000Z","block":26352400,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":53,"stale":false,"label":"as of 01:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":{"ask_eth":38,"ask_usd":84959,"z":1.77,"z_text":"1.8σ above the estimate","listed_since":"2026-10-24T10:10:35.000Z","days_listed":12},"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":12.6,"beta":0.1184,"term":"tone3","label":"Skin tone 3 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":66.5},{"pct":-3.5,"beta":-0.0359,"term":"count2","label":"2 attributes (vs 3)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":101.6},{"pct":-10.5,"beta":-0.1109,"term":"attr:Vampire Hair","label":"Vampire Hair","sales_12m":18,"weighted_sales":6.5}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.05,"date":"2018-06-08","block":5753813,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":15,"adjusted_eth":15.195},{"eth":4.25,"date":"2020-10-22","block":11106403,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":46,"adjusted_eth":32.3703},{"eth":3.5,"date":"2020-11-21","block":11302432,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":283,"adjusted_eth":32.7277},{"eth":44.95,"date":"2025-03-29","block":22154856,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":37,"adjusted_eth":31.7755},{"eth":29.49,"date":"2025-12-22","block":24067973,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":542,"adjusted_eth":33.2172}],"comparables":[{"eth":33.99,"date":"2026-09-21","punk":9541,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.3212,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":36.9,"date":"2026-06-11","punk":9541,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.2933,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29.8,"date":"2026-02-05","punk":9541,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.2884,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":28,"date":"2026-02-03","punk":9541,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.5272,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":54.98,"date":"2025-08-08","punk":9541,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.1724,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":56.88,"date":"2025-07-26","punk":2688,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.2361,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":59,"date":"2025-03-04","punk":5699,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":49.8751,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.25,"date":"2026-11-02","punk":4282,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.2301,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":0.017,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Normal Beard","sales_12m":39}],"summary":["Estimate 32.9 ETH (beta), 1σ range 30.4 to 35.7 ETH, 2σ range 28.0 to 38.7 ETH, confidence Low, as of 01:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 01:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +13%, 2 attributes (vs 3) -4%, Vampire Hair -11%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/6485","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}