{"punk":6531,"name":"CryptoPunk #6531","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/6531","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/6531.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":3,"attributes":["Earring","Cowboy Hat"],"attribute_count":2,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":70.2534,"usd":170230,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":47.3111,"high_eth":104.3209,"low_usd":114639,"high_usd":252778},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":31.8609,"high_eth":154.9087,"low_usd":77202,"high_usd":375356},"sigma_log":0.3954,"multiple_of_floor":2.3117,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T03:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":70.2534,"usd":170230,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":47.3111,"high_eth":104.3209,"low_usd":114639,"high_usd":252778},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":31.8609,"high_eth":154.9087,"low_usd":77202,"high_usd":375356},"sigma_log":0.3954,"multiple_of_floor":2.3117,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T03:04:35.000Z","block":26352999,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":57,"stale":false,"label":"as of 03:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T03:04:35.000Z","block":26352999,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":57,"stale":false,"label":"as of 03:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":12.6,"beta":0.1184,"term":"tone3","label":"Skin tone 3 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":66.5},{"pct":-3.5,"beta":-0.0359,"term":"count2","label":"2 attributes (vs 3)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":101.6},{"pct":-2.4,"beta":-0.0241,"term":"attr:Earring","label":"Earring","sales_12m":303,"weighted_sales":70.6},{"pct":95.5,"beta":0.6705,"term":"attr:Cowboy Hat","label":"Cowboy Hat","sales_12m":10,"weighted_sales":2.9}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.1,"date":"2017-10-26","block":4435430,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":29,"adjusted_eth":33.7667},{"eth":0.275,"date":"2019-01-08","block":7028528,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":4,"adjusted_eth":29.334},{"eth":0.49,"date":"2019-05-06","block":7704762,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":78,"adjusted_eth":33.8434},{"eth":5.5,"date":"2020-11-17","block":11276799,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":120,"adjusted_eth":66.858},{"eth":5.55,"date":"2021-01-23","block":11714228,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":208,"adjusted_eth":39.0427},{"eth":9,"date":"2021-01-30","block":11754055,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":156,"adjusted_eth":54.8116},{"eth":25,"date":"2021-02-21","block":11902484,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":65,"adjusted_eth":37.9875},{"eth":159.95,"date":"2022-03-12","block":14368560,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":60,"adjusted_eth":69.0466}],"comparables":[{"eth":78,"date":"2026-05-28","punk":4336,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":74.4479,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":80,"date":"2025-05-12","punk":1507,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":53.386,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":63.25,"date":"2025-04-10","punk":1782,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":45.2275,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":85,"date":"2025-02-04","punk":7585,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":64.692,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":75,"date":"2025-01-16","punk":1782,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":60.4736,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":68,"date":"2024-12-11","punk":735,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":52.317,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":64,"date":"2024-12-02","punk":1507,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":43.7758,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":46.969,"date":"2024-11-13","punk":1782,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":43.3988,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.7744,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[],"summary":["Estimate 70.3 ETH (beta), 1σ range 47.3 to 104 ETH, 2σ range 31.9 to 155 ETH, confidence Low, as of 03:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 03:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +13%, 2 attributes (vs 3) -4%, Earring -2%, Cowboy Hat +96%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/6531","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}