{"punk":654,"name":"CryptoPunk #654","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/654","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/654.svg","type":"Female","skin_tone":3,"attributes":["Earring","Wild White Hair","Clown Eyes Green"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":41.2166,"usd":99871,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":35.2443,"high_eth":48.201,"low_usd":85400,"high_usd":116795},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.1374,"high_eth":56.3688,"low_usd":73025,"high_usd":136586},"sigma_log":0.1565,"multiple_of_floor":1.3563,"n1_eth":30.6779,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T01:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":41.2166,"usd":99871,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":35.2443,"high_eth":48.201,"low_usd":85400,"high_usd":116795},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.1374,"high_eth":56.3688,"low_usd":73025,"high_usd":136586},"sigma_log":0.1565,"multiple_of_floor":1.3563,"n1_eth":30.6779,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T01:04:35.000Z","block":26352400,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":51,"stale":false,"label":"as of 01:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T01:04:35.000Z","block":26352400,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":51,"stale":false,"label":"as of 01:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Female","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.4,"public_asks":407,"punk":6263}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Female 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4,"beta":0.0392,"term":"tone3","label":"Skin tone 3 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":42.1},{"pct":34.8,"beta":0.2984,"term":"attr:Wild White Hair","label":"Wild White Hair","sales_12m":13,"weighted_sales":4},{"pct":-4.1,"beta":-0.0424,"term":"attr:Clown Eyes Green","label":"Clown Eyes Green","sales_12m":61,"weighted_sales":9.9}],"backtest":{"cell":"Female 2-3","seen":{"n":839,"cover1":0.634,"cover2":0.871,"bias_pct":-0.6,"within10":0.802,"within25":0.952,"MdALE_pct":4.1},"thin":false,"sigma":0.052,"selection":{"n":1056,"cover1":0.688,"cover2":0.916,"bias_pct":-1.5,"within10":0.841,"within25":0.968,"MdALE_pct":4}},"own_sales":[],"comparables":[{"eth":88,"date":"2026-10-22","punk":4405,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":85.5236,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.48,"date":"2026-06-25","punk":8999,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.4153,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":41.53,"date":"2026-06-14","punk":4153,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":38.5962,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":38.5,"date":"2026-05-20","punk":4153,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.4325,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32.5,"date":"2026-05-16","punk":2772,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.0841,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31,"date":"2026-05-16","punk":9732,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.6956,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32.75,"date":"2026-05-16","punk":2828,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.3155,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":60,"date":"2026-05-14","punk":6753,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":60.9853,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.2953,"type_multiple":{"sales":440,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0095,"median_multiple":1.0095},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Earring","sales_12m":303}],"summary":["Estimate 41.2 ETH (beta), 1σ range 35.2 to 48.2 ETH, 2σ range 30.1 to 56.4 ETH, confidence Low, as of 01:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 01:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (440 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +4%, Wild White Hair +35%, Clown Eyes Green -4%.","Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","In the backtest, Female 2-3 sales landed within ±4% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±4.1% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/654","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}