{"punk":6544,"name":"CryptoPunk #6544","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/6544","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/6544.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Front Beard Dark","Fedora","VR"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-04","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-05T00:20:43.410Z","fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"estimate":{"eth":38.5048,"usd":87546,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":34.2208,"high_eth":43.3251,"low_usd":77805,"high_usd":98505},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.4135,"high_eth":48.7486,"low_usd":69149,"high_usd":110836},"sigma_log":0.1179,"multiple_of_floor":1.267,"n1_eth":32.3769,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-04","eth":37.998,"usd":86393,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":33.7704,"high_eth":42.7548,"low_usd":76781,"high_usd":97208},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.0132,"high_eth":48.107,"low_usd":68239,"high_usd":109377},"sigma_log":0.1179,"multiple_of_floor":1.267,"n1_eth":31.9507,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":29.99,"fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","block":26351802,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":51,"stale":false,"label":"as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-04","eth":29.99,"eth_usd":2273.6272778684292,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","block":26351802,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":51,"stale":false,"label":"as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.7,"beta":0.0457,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":-7.3,"beta":-0.0756,"term":"attr:Front Beard Dark","label":"Front Beard Dark","sales_12m":35,"weighted_sales":13.4},{"pct":22.5,"beta":0.2032,"term":"attr:VR","label":"VR","sales_12m":24,"weighted_sales":3.6}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.25,"date":"2019-09-15","block":8555673,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":36,"adjusted_eth":24.9917},{"eth":0.38,"date":"2019-12-17","block":9120526,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":69,"adjusted_eth":32.5606},{"eth":1.84,"date":"2020-06-21","block":10312006,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":145,"adjusted_eth":48.8333},{"eth":6.25,"date":"2020-10-05","block":10995813,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":246,"adjusted_eth":36.0457},{"eth":28.5,"date":"2021-02-21","block":11902590,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":118,"adjusted_eth":42.7357},{"eth":32.5,"date":"2021-07-29","block":12923408,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":266,"adjusted_eth":42.8617},{"eth":38,"date":"2021-07-31","block":12933672,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":299,"adjusted_eth":38},{"eth":110,"date":"2021-11-24","block":13677693,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":23,"adjusted_eth":38.8334}],"comparables":[{"eth":39.9,"date":"2026-09-24","punk":7368,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":35.518,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":51,"date":"2026-04-04","punk":7516,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":54.6442,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":36.25,"date":"2025-11-09","punk":7839,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.984,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":100,"date":"2025-10-27","punk":8407,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":76.8974,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":44.99,"date":"2025-10-18","punk":7839,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.6058,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":46.95,"date":"2025-07-07","punk":6867,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":36.1126,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":60,"date":"2025-05-28","punk":7516,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":38.6968,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":44,"date":"2024-11-22","punk":6867,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":35.6831,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.1733,"type_multiple":{"sales":778,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0654,"median_multiple":1.0654},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Fedora","sales_12m":18}],"summary":["Estimate 38.5 ETH (beta), 1σ range 34.2 to 43.3 ETH, 2σ range 30.4 to 48.7 ETH, confidence Low, as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 23:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (778 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Front Beard Dark -7%, VR +23%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/6544","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}