{"punk":6557,"name":"CryptoPunk #6557","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/6557","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/6557.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":2,"attributes":["Shadow Beard","Clown Hair Green"],"attribute_count":2,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":35.9822,"usd":87188,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":32.6962,"high_eth":39.5985,"low_usd":79226,"high_usd":95950},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.7102,"high_eth":43.5783,"low_usd":71990,"high_usd":105594},"sigma_log":0.0958,"multiple_of_floor":1.184,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T06:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":35.9822,"usd":87188,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":32.6962,"high_eth":39.5985,"low_usd":79226,"high_usd":95950},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.7102,"high_eth":43.5783,"low_usd":71990,"high_usd":105594},"sigma_log":0.0958,"multiple_of_floor":1.184,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T06:04:23.000Z","block":26353897,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":30,"stale":false,"label":"as of 06:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T06:04:23.000Z","block":26353897,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":30,"stale":false,"label":"as of 06:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":10.1,"beta":0.0958,"term":"tone2","label":"Skin tone 2 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":88.6},{"pct":-3.5,"beta":-0.0359,"term":"count2","label":"2 attributes (vs 3)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":101.6}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.35,"date":"2019-04-20","block":7606746,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":4,"adjusted_eth":31.2838},{"eth":0.66,"date":"2019-09-24","block":8612408,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":103,"adjusted_eth":66.858},{"eth":1.3,"date":"2020-02-12","block":9469963,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":6,"adjusted_eth":66.961},{"eth":2.95,"date":"2020-09-10","block":10835078,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":177,"adjusted_eth":95.3729},{"eth":4.99,"date":"2020-09-15","block":10864549,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":309,"adjusted_eth":78.5731},{"eth":105,"date":"2021-08-27","block":13107856,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":73,"adjusted_eth":34.6842},{"eth":125,"date":"2021-08-28","block":13112604,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":39,"adjusted_eth":27.5878},{"eth":130,"date":"2021-08-29","block":13118676,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":22,"adjusted_eth":30.9859},{"eth":69.99,"date":"2023-03-01","block":16734244,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":176,"adjusted_eth":33.2603},{"eth":72.9,"date":"2023-03-21","block":16872801,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":127,"adjusted_eth":35.3395},{"eth":49.65,"date":"2025-07-23","block":22982545,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":200,"adjusted_eth":30.9574},{"eth":50,"date":"2025-09-11","block":23342336,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":197,"adjusted_eth":32.5863},{"eth":38.99,"date":"2025-10-28","block":23675475,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":9,"adjusted_eth":30.3822},{"eth":37.98,"date":"2025-11-25","block":23875870,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":433,"adjusted_eth":37.2687}],"comparables":[{"eth":28.88,"date":"2026-02-06","punk":3103,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.3926,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":25.91,"date":"2026-02-03","punk":3103,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.1739,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.89,"date":"2024-11-13","punk":8661,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.542,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":26.01,"date":"2024-11-08","punk":8661,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.9524,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":40.4,"date":"2026-11-01","punk":7440,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":40.3734,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":60,"date":"2026-10-21","punk":5448,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":58.3115,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":35,"date":"2026-10-03","punk":9872,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":32.2416,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":42,"date":"2026-10-03","punk":4810,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":38.6899,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":0.1053,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Shadow Beard","sales_12m":55},{"attribute":"Clown Hair Green","sales_12m":15}],"summary":["Estimate 36.0 ETH (beta), 1σ range 32.7 to 39.6 ETH, 2σ range 29.7 to 43.6 ETH, confidence Low, as of 06:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 06:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +10%, 2 attributes (vs 3) -4%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/6557","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}