{"punk":6584,"name":"CryptoPunk #6584","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/6584","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/6584.svg","type":"Female","skin_tone":2,"attributes":["Stringy Hair","Nerd Glasses"],"attribute_count":2,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":30.7316,"usd":74465,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.1742,"high_eth":32.3721,"low_usd":70691,"high_usd":78440},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.6957,"high_eth":34.1003,"low_usd":67109,"high_usd":82628},"sigma_log":0.052,"multiple_of_floor":1.0112,"n1_eth":30.6779,"confidence":"High","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T08:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.7316,"usd":74465,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.1742,"high_eth":32.3721,"low_usd":70691,"high_usd":78440},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.6957,"high_eth":34.1003,"low_usd":67109,"high_usd":82628},"sigma_log":0.052,"multiple_of_floor":1.0112,"n1_eth":30.6779,"confidence":"High","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T08:04:35.000Z","block":26354496,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":50,"stale":false,"label":"as of 08:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T08:04:35.000Z","block":26354496,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":50,"stale":false,"label":"as of 08:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Female","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.4,"public_asks":405,"punk":6263}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Female 2-3","terms":[{"pct":2.8,"beta":0.0274,"term":"tone2","label":"Skin tone 2 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":52.7},{"pct":-2.5,"beta":-0.0257,"term":"attr:Stringy Hair","label":"Stringy Hair","sales_12m":96,"weighted_sales":12.8}],"backtest":{"cell":"Female 2-3","seen":{"n":839,"cover1":0.634,"cover2":0.871,"bias_pct":-0.6,"within10":0.802,"within25":0.952,"MdALE_pct":4.1},"thin":false,"sigma":0.052,"selection":{"n":1056,"cover1":0.688,"cover2":0.916,"bias_pct":-1.5,"within10":0.841,"within25":0.968,"MdALE_pct":4}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.09,"date":"2018-04-14","block":5439882,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":13,"adjusted_eth":27.351},{"eth":15.5,"date":"2021-04-07","block":12192733,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":166,"adjusted_eth":30.8882},{"eth":18,"date":"2021-04-15","block":12247154,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":75,"adjusted_eth":28.0667},{"eth":21.98,"date":"2021-05-02","block":12351647,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":72,"adjusted_eth":31.0829},{"eth":16.75,"date":"2021-05-11","block":12411142,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":157,"adjusted_eth":31.8145},{"eth":0,"date":"2021-07-30","block":12923949,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":260,"adjusted_eth":null},{"eth":64.94,"date":"2022-09-07","block":15492653,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":5,"adjusted_eth":30.39},{"eth":64.94,"date":"2022-09-09","block":15504667,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":5,"adjusted_eth":31.8568},{"eth":62,"date":"2023-02-13","block":16620149,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":292,"adjusted_eth":30.4489},{"eth":58,"date":"2024-01-19","block":19043609,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":217,"adjusted_eth":29.8749}],"comparables":[{"eth":43,"date":"2024-12-02","punk":9377,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.4119,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":41,"date":"2024-12-01","punk":9377,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.9833,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29,"date":"2026-10-20","punk":2994,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":28.1839,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":40,"date":"2026-10-06","punk":9670,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":36.9483,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":50,"date":"2026-10-06","punk":2651,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":46.1854,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":35.2556,"date":"2026-10-01","punk":242,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.477,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":32.47,"date":"2026-09-23","punk":8809,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.0225,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":32.7,"date":"2026-09-23","punk":471,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.228,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":0.0017,"type_multiple":{"sales":440,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0095,"median_multiple":1.0095},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Nerd Glasses","sales_12m":64}],"summary":["Estimate 30.7 ETH (beta), 1σ range 29.2 to 32.4 ETH, 2σ range 27.7 to 34.1 ETH, confidence High, as of 08:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 08:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (440 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +3%, Stringy Hair -3%.","Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","In the backtest, Female 2-3 sales landed within ±4% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±4.1% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/6584","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}