{"punk":6591,"name":"CryptoPunk #6591","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/6591","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/6591.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":3,"attributes":["Handlebars","Mohawk Dark","Clown Eyes Blue"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-04","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-05T00:20:43.410Z","fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"estimate":{"eth":30.4975,"usd":69340,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":28.0011,"high_eth":33.2166,"low_usd":63664,"high_usd":75522},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":25.7089,"high_eth":36.1782,"low_usd":58452,"high_usd":82256},"sigma_log":0.0854,"multiple_of_floor":1.0035,"n1_eth":32.3769,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-05T21:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-04","eth":30.0961,"usd":68427,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":27.6325,"high_eth":32.7794,"low_usd":62826,"high_usd":74528},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":25.3705,"high_eth":35.702,"low_usd":57683,"high_usd":81173},"sigma_log":0.0854,"multiple_of_floor":1.0035,"n1_eth":31.9507,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":29.99,"fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T21:04:35.000Z","block":26351205,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":56,"stale":false,"label":"as of 21:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-04","eth":29.99,"eth_usd":2273.6272778684292,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T21:04:35.000Z","block":26351205,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":56,"stale":false,"label":"as of 21:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.7,"beta":0.0457,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":12.6,"beta":0.1184,"term":"tone3","label":"Skin tone 3 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":67},{"pct":-6.1,"beta":-0.0634,"term":"attr:Handlebars","label":"Handlebars","sales_12m":33,"weighted_sales":11.8},{"pct":-7.6,"beta":-0.0795,"term":"attr:Mohawk Dark","label":"Mohawk Dark","sales_12m":53,"weighted_sales":13.6},{"pct":-7.8,"beta":-0.081,"term":"attr:Clown Eyes Blue","label":"Clown Eyes Blue","sales_12m":66,"weighted_sales":6.4}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":19.75,"date":"2021-04-12","block":12222906,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":85,"adjusted_eth":28.9069},{"eth":21.8,"date":"2021-04-27","block":12324821,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":274,"adjusted_eth":29.7444},{"eth":67,"date":"2023-01-05","block":16340556,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":24,"adjusted_eth":30.3112},{"eth":68.69,"date":"2023-02-23","block":16690579,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":182,"adjusted_eth":32.2129}],"comparables":[{"eth":54.69,"date":"2025-07-26","punk":8960,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.4847,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":47.5,"date":"2025-05-04","punk":2265,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.3022,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30,"date":"2026-10-29","punk":9018,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.0306,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":29.99,"date":"2026-10-16","punk":7608,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.0129,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":33,"date":"2026-10-14","punk":3378,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.629,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":33.5,"date":"2026-10-11","punk":3739,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.9043,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":33.01,"date":"2026-10-09","punk":3667,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.4376,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":31.67,"date":"2026-10-08","punk":3667,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.001,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":-0.0598,"type_multiple":{"sales":778,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0654,"median_multiple":1.0654},"no_clear_premium":[],"summary":["Estimate 30.5 ETH (beta), 1σ range 28.0 to 33.2 ETH, 2σ range 25.7 to 36.2 ETH, confidence High, as of 21:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 21:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (778 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +13%, Handlebars -6%, Mohawk Dark -8%, Clown Eyes Blue -8%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/6591","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}