{"punk":6614,"name":"CryptoPunk #6614","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/6614","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/6614.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Goat","Frumpy Hair","Nerd Glasses"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-04","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-05T00:20:43.410Z","fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"estimate":{"eth":29.1087,"usd":66182,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":26.4423,"high_eth":32.0442,"low_usd":60120,"high_usd":72857},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":24.0201,"high_eth":35.2756,"low_usd":54613,"high_usd":80204},"sigma_log":0.0961,"multiple_of_floor":0.9578,"n1_eth":32.3769,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-05T22:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-04","eth":28.7256,"usd":65311,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":26.0943,"high_eth":31.6224,"low_usd":59329,"high_usd":71898},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":23.7039,"high_eth":34.8113,"low_usd":53894,"high_usd":79148},"sigma_log":0.0961,"multiple_of_floor":0.9578,"n1_eth":31.9507,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":29.99,"fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T22:04:35.000Z","block":26351503,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":10,"stale":false,"label":"as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-04","eth":29.99,"eth_usd":2273.6272778684292,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T22:04:35.000Z","block":26351503,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":10,"stale":false,"label":"as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.7,"beta":0.0457,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":-7.3,"beta":-0.0761,"term":"attr:Goat","label":"Goat","sales_12m":38,"weighted_sales":16.8},{"pct":-7.3,"beta":-0.076,"term":"attr:Frumpy Hair","label":"Frumpy Hair","sales_12m":60,"weighted_sales":20}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":8.5,"date":"2021-02-15","block":11857954,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":287,"adjusted_eth":31.471},{"eth":15,"date":"2021-04-07","block":12193844,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":170,"adjusted_eth":29.4984},{"eth":15.25,"date":"2021-04-08","block":12201105,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":244,"adjusted_eth":23.2274},{"eth":18.8,"date":"2021-04-08","block":12201217,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":15,"adjusted_eth":28.6344},{"eth":20.99,"date":"2021-04-30","block":12342859,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":278,"adjusted_eth":30.5578},{"eth":52,"date":"2025-07-25","block":22996931,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"twin-of-nominal-24h","log_index":276,"adjusted_eth":29.9958},{"eth":0,"date":"2025-07-26","block":23000065,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":2,"adjusted_eth":null}],"comparables":[{"eth":53,"date":"2026-10-20","punk":1424,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":50.8305,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":39.99,"date":"2026-09-29","punk":7559,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":35.8107,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30,"date":"2026-09-09","punk":7559,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.0802,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":34,"date":"2026-01-14","punk":7559,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":35.4049,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":27.75,"date":"2025-12-31","punk":7225,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.0879,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29.2,"date":"2025-12-10","punk":5938,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.99,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":47,"date":"2025-07-20","punk":4843,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.8313,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":41.5,"date":"2025-07-20","punk":4843,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":26.3404,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":-0.1064,"type_multiple":{"sales":778,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0654,"median_multiple":1.0654},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Nerd Glasses","sales_12m":64}],"summary":["Estimate 29.1 ETH (beta), 1σ range 26.4 to 32.0 ETH, 2σ range 24.0 to 35.3 ETH, confidence High, as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 22:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (778 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Goat -7%, Frumpy Hair -7%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/6614","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}