{"punk":6626,"name":"CryptoPunk #6626","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/6626","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/6626.svg","type":"Female","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Earring","Tassle Hat","Purple Eye Shadow"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-04","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-05T00:20:43.410Z","fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"estimate":{"eth":29.9726,"usd":68147,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":28.4135,"high_eth":31.6174,"low_usd":64602,"high_usd":71886},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":26.9354,"high_eth":33.3523,"low_usd":61241,"high_usd":75831},"sigma_log":0.0534,"multiple_of_floor":0.9863,"n1_eth":30.7154,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-05T22:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-04","eth":29.5781,"usd":67250,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":28.0395,"high_eth":31.2012,"low_usd":63751,"high_usd":70940},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":26.5809,"high_eth":32.9133,"low_usd":60435,"high_usd":74833},"sigma_log":0.0534,"multiple_of_floor":0.9863,"n1_eth":30.3111,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":29.99,"fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T22:04:35.000Z","block":26351503,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":9,"stale":false,"label":"as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-04","eth":29.99,"eth_usd":2273.6272778684292,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T22:04:35.000Z","block":26351503,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":9,"stale":false,"label":"as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Female","date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.4,"public_asks":407,"punk":6263}},"listing":{"ask_eth":57.89,"ask_usd":140272,"z":12.33,"z_text":"12.3σ above the estimate","listed_since":"2025-05-03T20:58:59.000Z","days_listed":551},"argument":{"cell":"Female 2-3","terms":[{"pct":-2.4,"beta":-0.0245,"term":"attr:Purple Eye Shadow","label":"Purple Eye Shadow","sales_12m":35,"weighted_sales":15.6}],"backtest":{"cell":"Female 2-3","seen":{"n":839,"cover1":0.634,"cover2":0.871,"bias_pct":-0.6,"within10":0.802,"within25":0.952,"MdALE_pct":4.1},"thin":false,"sigma":0.052,"selection":{"n":1056,"cover1":0.688,"cover2":0.916,"bias_pct":-1.5,"within10":0.841,"within25":0.968,"MdALE_pct":4}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.39,"date":"2017-07-08","block":3992698,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":12,"adjusted_eth":38.987},{"eth":0.4,"date":"2019-06-21","block":8001648,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":55,"adjusted_eth":27.6406},{"eth":1.39,"date":"2020-05-02","block":9986486,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":61,"adjusted_eth":75.7929},{"eth":2.75,"date":"2020-05-30","block":10165762,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":114,"adjusted_eth":62.4792},{"eth":7,"date":"2020-09-25","block":10933187,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":139,"adjusted_eth":72.3897},{"eth":48,"date":"2021-08-07","block":12975057,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":96,"adjusted_eth":27.7685},{"eth":55,"date":"2021-08-10","block":12995878,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":102,"adjusted_eth":34.1148},{"eth":87.5,"date":"2021-11-21","block":13658927,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":34,"adjusted_eth":29.3198},{"eth":69,"date":"2022-03-30","block":14488548,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":116,"adjusted_eth":29.6931},{"eth":63.25,"date":"2023-03-30","block":16940681,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":84,"adjusted_eth":29.1871},{"eth":41,"date":"2024-11-29","block":21295920,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":152,"adjusted_eth":30.9409}],"comparables":[{"eth":36,"date":"2026-10-31","punk":6370,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":35.5028,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29,"date":"2026-10-26","punk":2486,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.5152,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29.35,"date":"2026-09-17","punk":7587,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.6466,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":37,"date":"2026-07-02","punk":2682,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.7085,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30,"date":"2026-06-29","punk":2682,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.5619,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.75,"date":"2026-06-16","punk":628,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.1187,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.79,"date":"2026-06-05","punk":2659,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.856,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29.899,"date":"2026-05-15","punk":2659,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.9435,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":-0.0245,"type_multiple":{"sales":442,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0107,"median_multiple":1.0107},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Earring","sales_12m":306},{"attribute":"Tassle Hat","sales_12m":13}],"summary":["Estimate 30.0 ETH (beta), 1σ range 28.4 to 31.6 ETH, 2σ range 26.9 to 33.4 ETH, confidence Low, as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 22:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.","Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (442 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Purple Eye Shadow -2%.","Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","In the backtest, Female 2-3 sales landed within ±4% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±4.1% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/6626","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}