{"punk":6686,"name":"CryptoPunk #6686","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/6686","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/6686.svg","type":"Female","skin_tone":3,"attributes":["Knitted Cap","Clown Eyes Green"],"attribute_count":2,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":30.5824,"usd":74104,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.0321,"high_eth":32.2156,"low_usd":70347,"high_usd":78061},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.5604,"high_eth":33.9359,"low_usd":66781,"high_usd":82229},"sigma_log":0.052,"multiple_of_floor":1.0063,"n1_eth":30.6779,"confidence":"High","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T05:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.5824,"usd":74104,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.0321,"high_eth":32.2156,"low_usd":70347,"high_usd":78061},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.5604,"high_eth":33.9359,"low_usd":66781,"high_usd":82229},"sigma_log":0.052,"multiple_of_floor":1.0063,"n1_eth":30.6779,"confidence":"High","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T05:04:35.000Z","block":26353598,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":4,"stale":false,"label":"as of 05:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T05:04:35.000Z","block":26353598,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":4,"stale":false,"label":"as of 05:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Female","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.4,"public_asks":407,"punk":6263}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Female 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4,"beta":0.0392,"term":"tone3","label":"Skin tone 3 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":42.1},{"pct":-4.1,"beta":-0.0424,"term":"attr:Clown Eyes Green","label":"Clown Eyes Green","sales_12m":61,"weighted_sales":9.9}],"backtest":{"cell":"Female 2-3","seen":{"n":839,"cover1":0.634,"cover2":0.871,"bias_pct":-0.6,"within10":0.802,"within25":0.952,"MdALE_pct":4.1},"thin":false,"sigma":0.052,"selection":{"n":1056,"cover1":0.688,"cover2":0.916,"bias_pct":-1.5,"within10":0.841,"within25":0.968,"MdALE_pct":4}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.4,"date":"2019-06-21","block":8001675,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":144,"adjusted_eth":28.0092},{"eth":18.88,"date":"2021-07-08","block":12789572,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":65,"adjusted_eth":31.8757},{"eth":95,"date":"2021-10-31","block":13526097,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":95,"adjusted_eth":29.9176},{"eth":47.77,"date":"2025-06-14","block":22702028,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":326,"adjusted_eth":33.566},{"eth":48.38,"date":"2025-09-15","block":23371228,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":163,"adjusted_eth":30.03}],"comparables":[{"eth":28.994,"date":"2026-10-30","punk":3364,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.9233,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":28.46,"date":"2026-10-28","punk":3364,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.9322,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":32.7,"date":"2026-09-23","punk":471,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.228,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":31.98,"date":"2026-09-21","punk":6573,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.3507,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":30.5,"date":"2026-08-31","punk":8154,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.9745,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":50.5,"date":"2026-08-23","punk":5541,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":47.9892,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":33,"date":"2026-07-11","punk":4704,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.9146,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":32.48,"date":"2026-07-04","punk":9710,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.4275,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":-0.0031,"type_multiple":{"sales":440,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0095,"median_multiple":1.0095},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Knitted Cap","sales_12m":49}],"summary":["Estimate 30.6 ETH (beta), 1σ range 29.0 to 32.2 ETH, 2σ range 27.6 to 33.9 ETH, confidence High, as of 05:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 05:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (440 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +4%, Clown Eyes Green -4%.","Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","In the backtest, Female 2-3 sales landed within ±4% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±4.1% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/6686","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}