{"punk":6741,"name":"CryptoPunk #6741","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/6741","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/6741.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Mohawk Thin","Pipe"],"attribute_count":2,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":29.1811,"usd":70708,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":26.5239,"high_eth":32.1044,"low_usd":64270,"high_usd":77792},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":24.1087,"high_eth":35.3207,"low_usd":58417,"high_usd":85585},"sigma_log":0.0955,"multiple_of_floor":0.9602,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T04:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":29.1811,"usd":70708,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":26.5239,"high_eth":32.1044,"low_usd":64270,"high_usd":77792},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":24.1087,"high_eth":35.3207,"low_usd":58417,"high_usd":85585},"sigma_log":0.0955,"multiple_of_floor":0.9602,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T04:04:23.000Z","block":26353297,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":42,"stale":false,"label":"as of 04:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T04:04:23.000Z","block":26353297,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":42,"stale":false,"label":"as of 04:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":-3.5,"beta":-0.0359,"term":"count2","label":"2 attributes (vs 3)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":101.6},{"pct":-10.8,"beta":-0.1137,"term":"attr:Mohawk Thin","label":"Mohawk Thin","sales_12m":51,"weighted_sales":11}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":73.98,"date":"2022-07-09","block":15109052,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":32,"adjusted_eth":30.1172},{"eth":76.94,"date":"2022-07-10","block":15115762,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":116,"adjusted_eth":30.0966},{"eth":0,"date":"2024-11-14","block":21187255,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":37,"adjusted_eth":null},{"eth":48.69,"date":"2025-08-14","block":23138823,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":2,"adjusted_eth":29.1881},{"eth":48.38,"date":"2025-08-14","block":23139688,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"round-trip-30d","log_index":505,"adjusted_eth":29.0023},{"eth":50,"date":"2025-08-14","block":23141129,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"round-trip-30d","log_index":244,"adjusted_eth":29.9734},{"eth":50,"date":"2025-08-14","block":23141308,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"round-trip-30d","log_index":413,"adjusted_eth":29.9734},{"eth":47.38,"date":"2025-08-29","block":23243900,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":189,"adjusted_eth":30.8788}],"comparables":[{"eth":33,"date":"2026-05-22","punk":7881,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.9543,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.55,"date":"2026-01-16","punk":5287,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.1919,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":28.88,"date":"2026-01-14","punk":5287,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.4744,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30,"date":"2025-11-20","punk":5287,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.4001,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":38.48,"date":"2025-03-05","punk":8028,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.1842,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":39.88,"date":"2024-11-22","punk":8028,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.7732,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":35,"date":"2024-11-22","punk":8028,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.7628,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.4,"date":"2026-10-04","punk":5635,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.7677,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":-0.1042,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Pipe","sales_12m":32}],"summary":["Estimate 29.2 ETH (beta), 1σ range 26.5 to 32.1 ETH, 2σ range 24.1 to 35.3 ETH, confidence High, as of 04:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 04:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, 2 attributes (vs 3) -4%, Mohawk Thin -11%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/6741","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}