{"punk":6786,"name":"CryptoPunk #6786","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/6786","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/6786.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Chinstrap","Earring","Fedora","Medical Mask"],"attribute_count":4,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-04","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-05T00:20:43.410Z","fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"estimate":{"eth":31.3451,"usd":71267,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":28.6341,"high_eth":34.3128,"low_usd":65103,"high_usd":78015},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":26.1575,"high_eth":37.5615,"low_usd":59472,"high_usd":85401},"sigma_log":0.0905,"multiple_of_floor":1.0314,"n1_eth":32.3769,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-04","eth":30.9325,"usd":70329,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":28.2572,"high_eth":33.8612,"low_usd":64246,"high_usd":76988},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":25.8132,"high_eth":37.0671,"low_usd":58690,"high_usd":84277},"sigma_log":0.0905,"multiple_of_floor":1.0314,"n1_eth":31.9507,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":29.99,"fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","block":26351802,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":51,"stale":false,"label":"as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-04","eth":29.99,"eth_usd":2273.6272778684292,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","block":26351802,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":51,"stale":false,"label":"as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 4+","terms":[{"pct":4.7,"beta":0.0457,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":-5.3,"beta":-0.054,"term":"attr:Chinstrap","label":"Chinstrap","sales_12m":42,"weighted_sales":19.4},{"pct":-2.4,"beta":-0.0241,"term":"attr:Earring","label":"Earring","sales_12m":306,"weighted_sales":71.1}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 4+","seen":{"n":276,"cover1":0.736,"cover2":0.931,"bias_pct":1,"within10":0.71,"within25":0.928,"MdALE_pct":5.6},"thin":false,"sigma":0.089,"selection":{"n":293,"cover1":0.683,"cover2":0.932,"bias_pct":1.1,"within10":0.662,"within25":0.949,"MdALE_pct":6.9}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.25,"date":"2019-09-02","block":8472868,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":104,"adjusted_eth":24.9917},{"eth":0.55,"date":"2020-01-02","block":9200323,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":11,"adjusted_eth":37.4875},{"eth":0.95,"date":"2020-01-08","block":9238643,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":265,"adjusted_eth":49.9833},{"eth":1.8,"date":"2020-01-18","block":9305059,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":71,"adjusted_eth":84.3469},{"eth":1.86,"date":"2020-01-26","block":9357464,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":54,"adjusted_eth":84.5173},{"eth":1.5,"date":"2020-03-14","block":9667948,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":124,"adjusted_eth":74.975}],"comparables":[{"eth":33,"date":"2026-11-02","punk":2303,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.5442,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.745,"date":"2026-09-21","punk":2505,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.7107,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":38,"date":"2026-08-23","punk":1717,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":35.6354,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32.25,"date":"2026-08-20","punk":2505,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.8419,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":37,"date":"2026-08-13","punk":6562,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.982,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.19,"date":"2026-08-12","punk":6562,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.3798,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":36.4849,"date":"2026-06-26","punk":8614,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.2039,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33,"date":"2026-06-11","punk":2303,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.2651,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":-0.0324,"type_multiple":{"sales":778,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0654,"median_multiple":1.0654},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Fedora","sales_12m":18},{"attribute":"Medical Mask","sales_12m":12}],"summary":["Estimate 31.3 ETH (beta), 1σ range 28.6 to 34.3 ETH, 2σ range 26.2 to 37.6 ETH, confidence Low, as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 23:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (778 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Chinstrap -5%, Earring -2%.","In the backtest, Male 4+ sales landed within ±6.9% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.6% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/6786","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}