{"punk":6802,"name":"CryptoPunk #6802","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/6802","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/6802.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Goat","Fedora","Clown Nose"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":29.4113,"usd":71266,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":26.789,"high_eth":32.2903,"low_usd":64912,"high_usd":78242},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":24.4005,"high_eth":35.4511,"low_usd":59124,"high_usd":85901},"sigma_log":0.0934,"multiple_of_floor":0.9678,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T02:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":29.4113,"usd":71266,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":26.789,"high_eth":32.2903,"low_usd":64912,"high_usd":78242},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":24.4005,"high_eth":35.4511,"low_usd":59124,"high_usd":85901},"sigma_log":0.0934,"multiple_of_floor":0.9678,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T02:04:23.000Z","block":26352699,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":55,"stale":false,"label":"as of 02:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T02:04:23.000Z","block":26352699,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":55,"stale":false,"label":"as of 02:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":{"ask_eth":190,"ask_usd":424797,"z":19.97,"z_text":"20.0σ above the estimate","listed_since":"2023-03-24T04:51:35.000Z","days_listed":1322},"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":-7.3,"beta":-0.0762,"term":"attr:Goat","label":"Goat","sales_12m":37,"weighted_sales":16.7},{"pct":-6.4,"beta":-0.0656,"term":"attr:Clown Nose","label":"Clown Nose","sales_12m":25,"weighted_sales":6.1}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":25,"date":"2021-03-22","block":12090650,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":156,"adjusted_eth":37.061},{"eth":24,"date":"2021-04-14","block":12240683,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":47,"adjusted_eth":36.0178},{"eth":25.99,"date":"2021-04-24","block":12304238,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":258,"adjusted_eth":39.5116},{"eth":72.95,"date":"2022-12-03","block":16101487,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":117,"adjusted_eth":33.7641}],"comparables":[{"eth":47.4931,"date":"2025-09-17","punk":267,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.8823,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":56,"date":"2025-08-11","punk":267,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.0215,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":53.84,"date":"2025-07-31","punk":267,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.4653,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":46.95,"date":"2025-06-29","punk":8675,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":36.5943,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":86.5,"date":"2025-03-14","punk":3698,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":68.4745,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":42.1,"date":"2025-01-28","punk":267,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.2317,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":41.5,"date":"2025-01-27","punk":8675,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.8434,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":82,"date":"2025-01-07","punk":3698,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":67.369,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":-0.0964,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Fedora","sales_12m":18}],"summary":["Estimate 29.4 ETH (beta), 1σ range 26.8 to 32.3 ETH, 2σ range 24.4 to 35.5 ETH, confidence Low, as of 02:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 02:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Goat -7%, Clown Nose -6%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/6802","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}