{"punk":6809,"name":"CryptoPunk #6809","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/6809","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/6809.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":3,"attributes":["Big Beard","Peak Spike","Horned Rim Glasses"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":35.9217,"usd":87041,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":32.6562,"high_eth":39.5137,"low_usd":79129,"high_usd":95745},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.6875,"high_eth":43.465,"low_usd":71935,"high_usd":105319},"sigma_log":0.0953,"multiple_of_floor":1.182,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T03:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":35.9217,"usd":87041,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":32.6562,"high_eth":39.5137,"low_usd":79129,"high_usd":95745},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.6875,"high_eth":43.465,"low_usd":71935,"high_usd":105319},"sigma_log":0.0953,"multiple_of_floor":1.182,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T03:04:35.000Z","block":26352999,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":49,"stale":false,"label":"as of 03:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T03:04:35.000Z","block":26352999,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":49,"stale":false,"label":"as of 03:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":{"ask_eth":350,"ask_usd":782521,"z":23.89,"z_text":"23.9σ above the estimate","listed_since":"2022-04-03T23:02:06.000Z","days_listed":1677},"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":12.6,"beta":0.1184,"term":"tone3","label":"Skin tone 3 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":66.5},{"pct":-5.8,"beta":-0.0603,"term":"attr:Peak Spike","label":"Peak Spike","sales_12m":41,"weighted_sales":14.6}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.25,"date":"2017-07-26","block":4078299,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":3,"adjusted_eth":25.325},{"eth":0.75,"date":"2019-06-16","block":7968666,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":46,"adjusted_eth":50.65},{"eth":6.5,"date":"2020-09-15","block":10863642,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":229,"adjusted_eth":102.3497},{"eth":88,"date":"2022-04-02","block":14507814,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":7,"adjusted_eth":39.3282}],"comparables":[{"eth":60,"date":"2026-01-08","punk":1831,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":62.8976,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":45,"date":"2025-07-04","punk":1831,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":35.0744,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":39.5,"date":"2025-07-01","punk":7806,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.7796,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":62.5,"date":"2025-04-13","punk":7163,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":44.7017,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":55.99,"date":"2025-03-25","punk":7163,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":40.7163,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":50,"date":"2025-01-30","punk":5776,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":39.4675,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":36.95,"date":"2024-11-14","punk":7806,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.0379,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.26,"date":"2026-10-30","punk":9216,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.3401,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":0.1036,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Big Beard","sales_12m":7},{"attribute":"Horned Rim Glasses","sales_12m":50}],"summary":["Estimate 35.9 ETH (beta), 1σ range 32.7 to 39.5 ETH, 2σ range 29.7 to 43.5 ETH, confidence Low, as of 03:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 03:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +13%, Peak Spike -6%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/6809","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}