{"punk":6830,"name":"CryptoPunk #6830","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/6830","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/6830.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":2,"attributes":["Front Beard","Peak Spike","Eye Patch"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-04","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-05T00:20:43.410Z","fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"estimate":{"eth":32.5554,"usd":74019,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":30.051,"high_eth":35.2685,"low_usd":68325,"high_usd":80187},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.7393,"high_eth":38.2077,"low_usd":63069,"high_usd":86870},"sigma_log":0.08,"multiple_of_floor":1.0713,"n1_eth":32.3769,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-05T22:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-04","eth":32.1269,"usd":73045,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.6555,"high_eth":34.8043,"low_usd":67426,"high_usd":79132},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.3742,"high_eth":37.7048,"low_usd":62239,"high_usd":85727},"sigma_log":0.08,"multiple_of_floor":1.0713,"n1_eth":31.9507,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":29.99,"fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T22:04:35.000Z","block":26351503,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":37,"stale":false,"label":"as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-04","eth":29.99,"eth_usd":2273.6272778684292,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T22:04:35.000Z","block":26351503,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":37,"stale":false,"label":"as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.7,"beta":0.0457,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":10,"beta":0.0957,"term":"tone2","label":"Skin tone 2 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":89.3},{"pct":-7.3,"beta":-0.0757,"term":"attr:Front Beard","label":"Front Beard","sales_12m":38,"weighted_sales":11.3},{"pct":-5.8,"beta":-0.0602,"term":"attr:Peak Spike","label":"Peak Spike","sales_12m":41,"weighted_sales":14.7}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":20.02,"date":"2021-03-07","block":11992309,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":15,"adjusted_eth":30.7897},{"eth":21.99,"date":"2021-05-02","block":12351666,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":208,"adjusted_eth":30.6878},{"eth":19.94,"date":"2021-05-07","block":12386851,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":91,"adjusted_eth":30.2785},{"eth":64.99,"date":"2021-08-23","block":13081320,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":161,"adjusted_eth":28.798}],"comparables":[{"eth":29.35,"date":"2026-10-23","punk":8427,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.3938,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32.33,"date":"2026-09-11","punk":8557,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.5471,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":28.79,"date":"2026-03-21","punk":2124,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.3058,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":28.4,"date":"2026-03-13","punk":2124,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.8848,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":38,"date":"2026-02-20","punk":6785,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":38.2423,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":27,"date":"2026-01-31","punk":6785,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.5091,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":34,"date":"2026-01-14","punk":6785,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":35.4049,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32.97,"date":"2025-11-14","punk":2124,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.3304,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.0055,"type_multiple":{"sales":778,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0654,"median_multiple":1.0654},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Eye Patch","sales_12m":74}],"summary":["Estimate 32.6 ETH (beta), 1σ range 30.1 to 35.3 ETH, 2σ range 27.7 to 38.2 ETH, confidence High, as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 22:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (778 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +10%, Front Beard -7%, Peak Spike -6%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/6830","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}