{"punk":6842,"name":"CryptoPunk #6842","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/6842","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/6842.svg","type":"Female","skin_tone":4,"attributes":["Purple Lipstick","Tiara"],"attribute_count":2,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-04","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-05T00:20:43.410Z","fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"estimate":{"eth":64.6962,"usd":147095,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":44.4169,"high_eth":94.2343,"low_usd":100988,"high_usd":214254},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.4943,"high_eth":137.2586,"low_usd":69333,"high_usd":312075},"sigma_log":0.3761,"multiple_of_floor":2.1289,"n1_eth":30.7154,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-05T22:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-04","eth":63.8447,"usd":145159,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":43.8323,"high_eth":92.994,"low_usd":99658,"high_usd":211434},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.0929,"high_eth":135.452,"low_usd":68420,"high_usd":307967},"sigma_log":0.3761,"multiple_of_floor":2.1289,"n1_eth":30.3111,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":29.99,"fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T22:04:35.000Z","block":26351503,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":41,"stale":false,"label":"as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-04","eth":29.99,"eth_usd":2273.6272778684292,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T22:04:35.000Z","block":26351503,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":41,"stale":false,"label":"as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Female","date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.4,"public_asks":407,"punk":6263}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Female 2-3","terms":[{"pct":23.3,"beta":0.2096,"term":"tone4","label":"Skin tone 4 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":14.9},{"pct":70.8,"beta":0.5354,"term":"attr:Tiara","label":"Tiara","sales_12m":4,"weighted_sales":1.8}],"backtest":{"cell":"Female 2-3","seen":{"n":839,"cover1":0.634,"cover2":0.871,"bias_pct":-0.6,"within10":0.802,"within25":0.952,"MdALE_pct":4.1},"thin":false,"sigma":0.052,"selection":{"n":1056,"cover1":0.688,"cover2":0.916,"bias_pct":-1.5,"within10":0.841,"within25":0.968,"MdALE_pct":4}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.1502,"date":"2017-06-29","block":3948484,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":48,"adjusted_eth":32.1778}],"comparables":[{"eth":63.3333,"date":"2026-07-03","punk":7138,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":58.5501,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":38,"date":"2026-04-25","punk":4752,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":38.1399,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":89,"date":"2025-09-12","punk":2368,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":57.2402,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":60,"date":"2025-05-24","punk":7138,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":37.97,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":28.994,"date":"2026-10-30","punk":3364,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.5163,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":28.46,"date":"2026-10-28","punk":3364,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.5514,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":62,"date":"2026-10-22","punk":1603,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":59.4621,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":88,"date":"2026-10-22","punk":4405,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":84.3979,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":0.7449,"type_multiple":{"sales":442,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0107,"median_multiple":1.0107},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Purple Lipstick","sales_12m":67}],"summary":["Estimate 64.7 ETH (beta), 1σ range 44.4 to 94.2 ETH, 2σ range 30.5 to 137 ETH, confidence Low, as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 22:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.","Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (442 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Skin tone 4 (vs 1) +23%, Tiara +71%.","Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","In the backtest, Female 2-3 sales landed within ±4% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±4.1% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/6842","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}