{"punk":6848,"name":"CryptoPunk #6848","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/6848","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/6848.svg","type":"Female","skin_tone":3,"attributes":["Hot Lipstick","Earring","Bandana","Purple Eye Shadow"],"attribute_count":4,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":31.1343,"usd":75441,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.4828,"high_eth":32.8783,"low_usd":71439,"high_usd":79667},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.9189,"high_eth":34.7199,"low_usd":67650,"high_usd":84129},"sigma_log":0.0545,"multiple_of_floor":1.0245,"n1_eth":30.6779,"confidence":"Medium","cell":"Female 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T07:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":31.1343,"usd":75441,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.4828,"high_eth":32.8783,"low_usd":71439,"high_usd":79667},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.9189,"high_eth":34.7199,"low_usd":67650,"high_usd":84129},"sigma_log":0.0545,"multiple_of_floor":1.0245,"n1_eth":30.6779,"confidence":"Medium","cell":"Female 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T07:04:35.000Z","block":26354196,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":44,"stale":false,"label":"as of 07:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T07:04:35.000Z","block":26354196,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":44,"stale":false,"label":"as of 07:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Female","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.4,"public_asks":407,"punk":6263}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Female 4+","terms":[{"pct":4,"beta":0.0392,"term":"tone3","label":"Skin tone 3 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":42.1},{"pct":-2.4,"beta":-0.0245,"term":"attr:Purple Eye Shadow","label":"Purple Eye Shadow","sales_12m":35,"weighted_sales":15.4}],"backtest":{"cell":"Female 4+","seen":{"n":135,"cover1":0.6,"cover2":0.815,"bias_pct":-0.9,"within10":0.763,"within25":0.933,"MdALE_pct":4.5},"thin":false,"sigma":0.054,"selection":{"n":177,"cover1":0.712,"cover2":0.921,"bias_pct":-0.5,"within10":0.819,"within25":0.966,"MdALE_pct":3.4}},"own_sales":[{"eth":1.07,"date":"2020-08-29","block":10756868,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":108,"adjusted_eth":40.6466}],"comparables":[{"eth":49.99,"date":"2025-11-06","punk":5295,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":43.0978,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":49,"date":"2025-09-04","punk":5295,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.0231,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":53,"date":"2025-07-22","punk":5295,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.9088,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":45,"date":"2025-03-31","punk":5295,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.1097,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":44.99,"date":"2025-03-31","punk":2158,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.1025,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":36,"date":"2026-10-31","punk":6370,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":35.9763,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29,"date":"2026-10-26","punk":2486,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.8955,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29,"date":"2026-10-20","punk":3190,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.1839,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.0148,"type_multiple":{"sales":440,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0095,"median_multiple":1.0095},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Hot Lipstick","sales_12m":88},{"attribute":"Earring","sales_12m":303},{"attribute":"Bandana","sales_12m":63}],"summary":["Estimate 31.1 ETH (beta), 1σ range 29.5 to 32.9 ETH, 2σ range 27.9 to 34.7 ETH, confidence Medium, as of 07:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 07:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (440 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +4%, Purple Eye Shadow -2%.","Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","In the backtest, Female 4+ sales landed within ±3.4% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±4.5% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/6848","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}