{"punk":686,"name":"CryptoPunk #686","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/686","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/686.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":2,"attributes":["Smile","Chinstrap","Earring","Shaved Head","Pipe"],"attribute_count":5,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":37.4213,"usd":90675,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":33.3682,"high_eth":41.9666,"low_usd":80854,"high_usd":101689},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.7542,"high_eth":47.064,"low_usd":72097,"high_usd":114040},"sigma_log":0.1146,"multiple_of_floor":1.2314,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T00:00:00.000Z","basis":"daily close"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":37.4213,"usd":90675,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":33.3682,"high_eth":41.9666,"low_usd":80854,"high_usd":101689},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.7542,"high_eth":47.064,"low_usd":72097,"high_usd":114040},"sigma_log":0.1146,"multiple_of_floor":1.2314,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"daily close","as_of":"2026-11-06T00:00:00.000Z","block":null,"eth":30.39,"punk":null,"public_asks":null,"age_minutes":41,"stale":false,"label":"as of 00:00 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"daily close","as_of":"2026-11-06T00:00:00.000Z","block":null,"eth":30.39,"punk":null,"public_asks":null,"age_minutes":41,"stale":false,"label":"as of 00:00 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 4+","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":10.1,"beta":0.0958,"term":"tone2","label":"Skin tone 2 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":88.6},{"pct":17,"beta":0.1572,"term":"attr:Smile","label":"Smile","sales_12m":21,"weighted_sales":7},{"pct":-5.3,"beta":-0.054,"term":"attr:Chinstrap","label":"Chinstrap","sales_12m":42,"weighted_sales":19.3},{"pct":-2.4,"beta":-0.0241,"term":"attr:Earring","label":"Earring","sales_12m":303,"weighted_sales":70.6},{"pct":-7.3,"beta":-0.0758,"term":"attr:Shaved Head","label":"Shaved Head","sales_12m":42,"weighted_sales":12.5}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 4+","seen":{"n":276,"cover1":0.736,"cover2":0.931,"bias_pct":1,"within10":0.71,"within25":0.928,"MdALE_pct":5.6},"thin":false,"sigma":0.089,"selection":{"n":293,"cover1":0.683,"cover2":0.932,"bias_pct":1.1,"within10":0.662,"within25":0.949,"MdALE_pct":6.9}},"own_sales":[{"eth":45,"date":"2021-02-21","block":11903099,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":111,"adjusted_eth":68.3775},{"eth":77.77,"date":"2021-07-26","block":12903021,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":99,"adjusted_eth":107.4775},{"eth":105,"date":"2021-08-19","block":13056810,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":329,"adjusted_eth":65.4822},{"eth":60,"date":"2022-05-17","block":14792341,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":3,"adjusted_eth":35.399},{"eth":74.95,"date":"2022-06-18","block":14985967,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":208,"adjusted_eth":37.0062},{"eth":104.99,"date":"2022-09-24","block":15601409,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":10,"adjusted_eth":49.8928}],"comparables":[{"eth":69.35,"date":"2025-07-27","punk":3569,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":41.3407,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":40,"date":"2025-03-24","punk":1695,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.0813,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":33.2,"date":"2026-09-25","punk":7591,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":29.948,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32,"date":"2026-09-22","punk":8246,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.987,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.745,"date":"2026-09-21","punk":2505,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.1203,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":161.5,"date":"2026-09-04","punk":1839,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":159.6612,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":38,"date":"2026-08-23","punk":1717,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":36.1107,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32.25,"date":"2026-08-20","punk":2505,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.24,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.1445,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Pipe","sales_12m":32}],"summary":["Estimate 37.4 ETH (beta), 1σ range 33.4 to 42.0 ETH, 2σ range 29.8 to 47.1 ETH, confidence Low, as of 00:00 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +10%, Smile +17%, Chinstrap -5%, Earring -2%, Shaved Head -7%.","In the backtest, Male 4+ sales landed within ±6.9% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.6% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/686","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}