{"punk":6867,"name":"CryptoPunk #6867","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/6867","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/6867.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Muttonchops","Fedora","VR"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":37.6682,"usd":91273,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":33.7435,"high_eth":42.0493,"low_usd":81763,"high_usd":101889},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.2277,"high_eth":46.9401,"low_usd":73244,"high_usd":113740},"sigma_log":0.11,"multiple_of_floor":1.2395,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T06:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":37.6682,"usd":91273,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":33.7435,"high_eth":42.0493,"low_usd":81763,"high_usd":101889},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.2277,"high_eth":46.9401,"low_usd":73244,"high_usd":113740},"sigma_log":0.11,"multiple_of_floor":1.2395,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T06:04:23.000Z","block":26353897,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":36,"stale":false,"label":"as of 06:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T06:04:23.000Z","block":26353897,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":36,"stale":false,"label":"as of 06:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":{"ask_eth":39.99,"ask_usd":89409,"z":0.54,"z_text":"0.5σ above the estimate","listed_since":"2026-09-04T19:08:11.000Z","days_listed":62},"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":-9.3,"beta":-0.0973,"term":"attr:Muttonchops","label":"Muttonchops","sales_12m":48,"weighted_sales":15.7},{"pct":22.5,"beta":0.2029,"term":"attr:VR","label":"VR","sales_12m":24,"weighted_sales":3.6}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":44,"date":"2024-11-22","block":21239699,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":32,"adjusted_eth":36.159},{"eth":46.95,"date":"2025-07-07","block":22868823,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":131,"adjusted_eth":36.5943},{"eth":0,"date":"2025-07-10","block":22887651,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":99,"adjusted_eth":null},{"eth":0,"date":"2025-07-11","block":22893854,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":355,"adjusted_eth":null},{"eth":0,"date":"2025-07-11","block":22896456,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":103,"adjusted_eth":null}],"comparables":[{"eth":36.25,"date":"2025-11-09","punk":7839,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.4106,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":100,"date":"2025-10-27","punk":8407,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":77.9231,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":44.99,"date":"2025-10-18","punk":7839,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.0273,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":51.864,"date":"2025-09-20","punk":6482,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.232,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":47.69,"date":"2024-12-01","punk":8334,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.7125,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33,"date":"2026-11-02","punk":2303,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.9783,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":30,"date":"2026-11-02","punk":3391,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.9803,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":29.5,"date":"2026-10-25","punk":9404,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":29.2116,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":0.1511,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Fedora","sales_12m":18}],"summary":["Estimate 37.7 ETH (beta), 1σ range 33.7 to 42.0 ETH, 2σ range 30.2 to 46.9 ETH, confidence Low, as of 06:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 06:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Muttonchops -9%, VR +23%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/6867","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}