{"punk":6871,"name":"CryptoPunk #6871","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/6871","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/6871.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Buck Teeth","Bandana","Pipe","Nerd Glasses"],"attribute_count":4,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":32.7037,"usd":79244,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.9149,"high_eth":35.7526,"low_usd":72486,"high_usd":86631},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.3638,"high_eth":39.0857,"low_usd":66305,"high_usd":94708},"sigma_log":0.0891,"multiple_of_floor":1.0761,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T02:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":32.7037,"usd":79244,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.9149,"high_eth":35.7526,"low_usd":72486,"high_usd":86631},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.3638,"high_eth":39.0857,"low_usd":66305,"high_usd":94708},"sigma_log":0.0891,"multiple_of_floor":1.0761,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T02:04:23.000Z","block":26352699,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":56,"stale":false,"label":"as of 02:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T02:04:23.000Z","block":26352699,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":56,"stale":false,"label":"as of 02:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":{"ask_eth":388,"ask_usd":867481,"z":27.76,"z_text":"27.8σ above the estimate","listed_since":"2021-08-07T23:10:15.000Z","days_listed":1916},"argument":{"cell":"Male 4+","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":-3.5,"beta":-0.0357,"term":"attr:Bandana","label":"Bandana","sales_12m":63,"weighted_sales":14.1}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 4+","seen":{"n":276,"cover1":0.736,"cover2":0.931,"bias_pct":1,"within10":0.71,"within25":0.928,"MdALE_pct":5.6},"thin":false,"sigma":0.089,"selection":{"n":293,"cover1":0.683,"cover2":0.932,"bias_pct":1.1,"within10":0.662,"within25":0.949,"MdALE_pct":6.9}},"own_sales":[{"eth":45.54,"date":"2021-02-21","block":11902347,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":13,"adjusted_eth":69.198},{"eth":50,"date":"2021-03-17","block":12053431,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":35,"adjusted_eth":67.8651}],"comparables":[{"eth":37.7,"date":"2026-08-08","punk":2021,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":35.5808,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33,"date":"2026-03-14","punk":2021,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":35.1884,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":37.7,"date":"2026-02-05","punk":4233,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":38.3178,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":60,"date":"2025-08-02","punk":9225,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.7729,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":199.99,"date":"2025-07-25","punk":7674,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":116.9013,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":46.675,"date":"2025-07-17","punk":2021,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.7888,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":45.005,"date":"2025-07-16","punk":2021,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":31.8515,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":50,"date":"2025-07-15","punk":2745,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":37.997,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.0098,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Buck Teeth","sales_12m":3},{"attribute":"Pipe","sales_12m":32},{"attribute":"Nerd Glasses","sales_12m":64}],"summary":["Estimate 32.7 ETH (beta), 1σ range 29.9 to 35.8 ETH, 2σ range 27.4 to 39.1 ETH, confidence Low, as of 02:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 02:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Bandana -4%.","In the backtest, Male 4+ sales landed within ±6.9% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.6% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/6871","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}