{"punk":6883,"name":"CryptoPunk #6883","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/6883","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/6883.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":2,"attributes":["Mustache","Earring","Do-rag","Classic Shades"],"attribute_count":4,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-04","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-05T00:20:43.410Z","fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"estimate":{"eth":34.409,"usd":78233,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":31.32,"high_eth":37.8027,"low_usd":71210,"high_usd":85949},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":28.5083,"high_eth":41.5309,"low_usd":64817,"high_usd":94426},"sigma_log":0.0941,"multiple_of_floor":1.1322,"n1_eth":32.3769,"confidence":"Medium","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-05T21:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-04","eth":33.9561,"usd":77204,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":30.9078,"high_eth":37.3051,"low_usd":70273,"high_usd":84818},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":28.1331,"high_eth":40.9843,"low_usd":63964,"high_usd":93183},"sigma_log":0.0941,"multiple_of_floor":1.1322,"n1_eth":31.9507,"confidence":"Medium","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":29.99,"fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T21:04:35.000Z","block":26351205,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":48,"stale":false,"label":"as of 21:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-04","eth":29.99,"eth_usd":2273.6272778684292,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T21:04:35.000Z","block":26351205,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":48,"stale":false,"label":"as of 21:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 4+","terms":[{"pct":4.7,"beta":0.0457,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":10,"beta":0.0957,"term":"tone2","label":"Skin tone 2 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":89.3},{"pct":-2.4,"beta":-0.0241,"term":"attr:Earring","label":"Earring","sales_12m":306,"weighted_sales":71.1},{"pct":-5.5,"beta":-0.0565,"term":"attr:Do-rag","label":"Do-rag","sales_12m":52,"weighted_sales":18}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 4+","seen":{"n":276,"cover1":0.736,"cover2":0.931,"bias_pct":1,"within10":0.71,"within25":0.928,"MdALE_pct":5.6},"thin":false,"sigma":0.089,"selection":{"n":293,"cover1":0.683,"cover2":0.932,"bias_pct":1.1,"within10":0.662,"within25":0.949,"MdALE_pct":6.9}},"own_sales":[{"eth":15,"date":"2021-02-21","block":11897059,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":151,"adjusted_eth":22.4925},{"eth":21,"date":"2021-02-25","block":11928884,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":210,"adjusted_eth":29.2926},{"eth":40,"date":"2021-08-03","block":12950787,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":137,"adjusted_eth":36.3515},{"eth":85,"date":"2021-08-25","block":13092808,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":28,"adjusted_eth":32.3702},{"eth":127.99,"date":"2021-10-02","block":13337271,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":93,"adjusted_eth":31.0929},{"eth":46,"date":"2024-03-15","block":19442882,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":480,"adjusted_eth":28.1596},{"eth":50,"date":"2024-03-23","block":19499507,"source":"native-bid","excluded":"round-trip-30d","log_index":304,"adjusted_eth":30.1407},{"eth":39,"date":"2024-04-16","block":19668757,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"round-trip-30d","log_index":27,"adjusted_eth":29.2476},{"eth":29.89,"date":"2024-10-19","block":21001163,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":242,"adjusted_eth":33.2123},{"eth":29,"date":"2026-01-10","block":24206485,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":435,"adjusted_eth":29.805},{"eth":30.5,"date":"2026-01-16","block":24249214,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":409,"adjusted_eth":31.7162},{"eth":30.7,"date":"2026-02-01","block":24360057,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":249,"adjusted_eth":33.725}],"comparables":[{"eth":38.4899,"date":"2026-07-25","punk":4325,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":35.6049,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":32.5,"date":"2026-07-23","punk":4325,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.4681,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":30,"date":"2026-03-28","punk":9024,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.2939,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":30,"date":"2026-10-29","punk":9018,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.0306,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":45,"date":"2026-10-24","punk":8879,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":43.9593,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":40,"date":"2026-10-12","punk":3758,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":38.0946,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33,"date":"2026-10-02","punk":2224,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":29.9991,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":34.4999,"date":"2026-09-25","punk":9142,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.711,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.0609,"type_multiple":{"sales":778,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0654,"median_multiple":1.0654},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Mustache","sales_12m":51},{"attribute":"Classic Shades","sales_12m":64}],"summary":["Estimate 34.4 ETH (beta), 1σ range 31.3 to 37.8 ETH, 2σ range 28.5 to 41.5 ETH, confidence Medium, as of 21:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 21:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (778 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +10%, Earring -2%, Do-rag -6%.","In the backtest, Male 4+ sales landed within ±6.9% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.6% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/6883","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}