{"punk":6886,"name":"CryptoPunk #6886","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/6886","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/6886.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":2,"attributes":["Silver Chain","Earring","Headband","Regular Shades"],"attribute_count":4,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":36.4094,"usd":88223,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":32.7302,"high_eth":40.5022,"low_usd":79308,"high_usd":98140},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.4228,"high_eth":45.0551,"low_usd":71294,"high_usd":109172},"sigma_log":0.1065,"multiple_of_floor":1.1981,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T06:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":36.4094,"usd":88223,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":32.7302,"high_eth":40.5022,"low_usd":79308,"high_usd":98140},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.4228,"high_eth":45.0551,"low_usd":71294,"high_usd":109172},"sigma_log":0.1065,"multiple_of_floor":1.1981,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T06:04:23.000Z","block":26353897,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":60,"stale":false,"label":"as of 06:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T06:04:23.000Z","block":26353897,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":60,"stale":false,"label":"as of 06:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":{"ask_eth":67.67,"ask_usd":151295,"z":5.82,"z_text":"5.8σ above the estimate","listed_since":"2025-04-19T02:56:35.000Z","days_listed":566},"argument":{"cell":"Male 4+","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":10.1,"beta":0.0958,"term":"tone2","label":"Skin tone 2 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":88.6},{"pct":-2.4,"beta":-0.0241,"term":"attr:Earring","label":"Earring","sales_12m":303,"weighted_sales":70.6}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 4+","seen":{"n":276,"cover1":0.736,"cover2":0.931,"bias_pct":1,"within10":0.71,"within25":0.928,"MdALE_pct":5.6},"thin":false,"sigma":0.089,"selection":{"n":293,"cover1":0.683,"cover2":0.932,"bias_pct":1.1,"within10":0.662,"within25":0.949,"MdALE_pct":6.9}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.25,"date":"2019-09-02","block":8472886,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":47,"adjusted_eth":25.325},{"eth":0.55,"date":"2020-01-07","block":9231400,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":65,"adjusted_eth":30.39},{"eth":0.7,"date":"2020-01-16","block":9290460,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":198,"adjusted_eth":36.6776},{"eth":0.7,"date":"2020-04-24","block":9935127,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":75,"adjusted_eth":41.7118},{"eth":1.75,"date":"2020-09-13","block":10852727,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":122,"adjusted_eth":38.538},{"eth":0,"date":"2024-02-26","block":19309771,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":209,"adjusted_eth":null},{"eth":45,"date":"2024-05-08","block":19823233,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":81,"adjusted_eth":35.9976}],"comparables":[{"eth":29.5,"date":"2026-10-25","punk":9404,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":29.2116,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.5,"date":"2026-09-17","punk":1607,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.2898,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32.5,"date":"2026-09-04","punk":8375,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.13,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":58,"date":"2026-08-07","punk":4523,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":54.4859,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.4,"date":"2026-07-21","punk":4256,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.7196,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":34.6,"date":"2026-07-04","punk":1607,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.4135,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":34.5,"date":"2026-05-14","punk":1812,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":35.0666,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29.7,"date":"2026-05-04","punk":9404,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":29.1626,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.1171,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Silver Chain","sales_12m":20},{"attribute":"Headband","sales_12m":48},{"attribute":"Regular Shades","sales_12m":47}],"summary":["Estimate 36.4 ETH (beta), 1σ range 32.7 to 40.5 ETH, 2σ range 29.4 to 45.1 ETH, confidence Low, as of 06:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 06:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +10%, Earring -2%.","In the backtest, Male 4+ sales landed within ±6.9% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.6% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/6886","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}