{"punk":6951,"name":"CryptoPunk #6951","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/6951","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/6951.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Mole","Cap Forward","Small Shades"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":31.6054,"usd":76582,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.1485,"high_eth":34.2695,"low_usd":70629,"high_usd":83038},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":26.8826,"high_eth":37.1581,"low_usd":65139,"high_usd":90037},"sigma_log":0.0809,"multiple_of_floor":1.04,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T12:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":31.6054,"usd":76582,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.1485,"high_eth":34.2695,"low_usd":70629,"high_usd":83038},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":26.8826,"high_eth":37.1581,"low_usd":65139,"high_usd":90037},"sigma_log":0.0809,"multiple_of_floor":1.04,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T12:04:23.000Z","block":26355693,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1161,"age_minutes":27,"stale":false,"label":"as of 12:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T12:04:23.000Z","block":26355693,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1161,"age_minutes":27,"stale":false,"label":"as of 12:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":{"ask_eth":3600,"ask_usd":8048788,"z":58.53,"z_text":"58.5σ above the estimate","listed_since":"2021-03-23T01:51:38.000Z","days_listed":2054},"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":-6.7,"beta":-0.0698,"term":"attr:Mole","label":"Mole","sales_12m":89,"weighted_sales":22.5}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.58,"date":"2020-05-14","block":10066072,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":35,"adjusted_eth":25.1803},{"eth":1.09,"date":"2020-05-24","block":10130734,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":124,"adjusted_eth":30.39},{"eth":1.31,"date":"2020-05-26","block":10141682,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":48,"adjusted_eth":32.1056},{"eth":21.21,"date":"2021-03-23","block":12092177,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":88,"adjusted_eth":31.8307}],"comparables":[{"eth":51.8,"date":"2025-06-08","punk":8075,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.99,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":50,"date":"2025-05-28","punk":8075,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.6774,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":39.69,"date":"2025-03-21","punk":7029,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.2073,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":39.59,"date":"2025-03-21","punk":5999,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.1312,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":43,"date":"2025-03-10","punk":1031,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.4024,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":43.1,"date":"2024-12-04","punk":5999,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.4803,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":41,"date":"2024-12-04","punk":5999,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.0439,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":39,"date":"2024-11-13","punk":1031,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":36.0356,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":-0.0244,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Cap Forward","sales_12m":24},{"attribute":"Small Shades","sales_12m":44}],"summary":["Estimate 31.6 ETH (beta), 1σ range 29.1 to 34.3 ETH, 2σ range 26.9 to 37.2 ETH, confidence Low, as of 12:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 12:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Mole -7%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/6951","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}