{"punk":6956,"name":"CryptoPunk #6956","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/6956","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/6956.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Stringy Hair","Eye Mask"],"attribute_count":2,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":29.634,"usd":71806,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":27.0428,"high_eth":32.4734,"low_usd":65527,"high_usd":78686},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":24.6783,"high_eth":35.5848,"low_usd":59798,"high_usd":86225},"sigma_log":0.0915,"multiple_of_floor":0.9751,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T05:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":29.634,"usd":71806,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":27.0428,"high_eth":32.4734,"low_usd":65527,"high_usd":78686},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":24.6783,"high_eth":35.5848,"low_usd":59798,"high_usd":86225},"sigma_log":0.0915,"multiple_of_floor":0.9751,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T05:04:35.000Z","block":26353598,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":51,"stale":false,"label":"as of 05:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T05:04:35.000Z","block":26353598,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":51,"stale":false,"label":"as of 05:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":-3.5,"beta":-0.0359,"term":"count2","label":"2 attributes (vs 3)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":101.6},{"pct":-9.4,"beta":-0.0983,"term":"attr:Stringy Hair","label":"Stringy Hair","sales_12m":96,"weighted_sales":25.2}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.09,"date":"2017-12-05","block":4681225,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":54,"adjusted_eth":30.39},{"eth":0.2,"date":"2018-09-22","block":6380569,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":12,"adjusted_eth":55.2545},{"eth":7.5,"date":"2021-02-16","block":11866846,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":24,"adjusted_eth":27.1339},{"eth":8.5,"date":"2021-02-17","block":11872552,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":14,"adjusted_eth":20.0555},{"eth":49.29,"date":"2021-08-06","block":12969337,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":129,"adjusted_eth":30.5699},{"eth":53.97,"date":"2021-08-06","block":12969797,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"twin-of-nominal-24h","log_index":80,"adjusted_eth":33.4724},{"eth":0,"date":"2021-08-06","block":12969804,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":108,"adjusted_eth":null},{"eth":50.99,"date":"2021-08-07","block":12979097,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":59,"adjusted_eth":29.8917},{"eth":101,"date":"2021-10-18","block":13442026,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":45,"adjusted_eth":29.7999},{"eth":65,"date":"2021-12-05","block":13748034,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":85,"adjusted_eth":28.7324},{"eth":68.69,"date":"2021-12-07","block":13757323,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":33,"adjusted_eth":28.6153},{"eth":68.4,"date":"2022-01-23","block":14063165,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":12,"adjusted_eth":30.187},{"eth":72,"date":"2022-03-21","block":14431366,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":154,"adjusted_eth":30.1804},{"eth":72.9,"date":"2022-03-23","block":14442459,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"twin-of-nominal-24h","log_index":31,"adjusted_eth":30.7913},{"eth":0,"date":"2022-03-24","block":14446653,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":119,"adjusted_eth":null}],"comparables":[{"eth":34.45,"date":"2026-08-21","punk":2524,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.263,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.43,"date":"2026-08-12","punk":2524,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.1541,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.98,"date":"2025-11-08","punk":3121,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.1945,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32,"date":"2025-11-07","punk":3121,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":28.1878,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":36.49,"date":"2025-11-05","punk":3121,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.39,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.99,"date":"2026-11-02","punk":9585,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.9696,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":32,"date":"2026-10-16","punk":8871,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.3703,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":31.49,"date":"2026-10-12","punk":4064,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.39,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":-0.0888,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Eye Mask","sales_12m":55}],"summary":["Estimate 29.6 ETH (beta), 1σ range 27.0 to 32.5 ETH, 2σ range 24.7 to 35.6 ETH, confidence High, as of 05:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 05:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, 2 attributes (vs 3) -4%, Stringy Hair -9%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/6956","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}