{"punk":704,"name":"CryptoPunk #704","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/704","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/704.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":2,"attributes":["Smile","Mustache","Cap Forward"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":43.6485,"usd":105764,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":36.8502,"high_eth":51.7009,"low_usd":89291,"high_usd":125276},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":31.1107,"high_eth":61.239,"low_usd":75384,"high_usd":148387},"sigma_log":0.1693,"multiple_of_floor":1.4363,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T01:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":43.6485,"usd":105764,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":36.8502,"high_eth":51.7009,"low_usd":89291,"high_usd":125276},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":31.1107,"high_eth":61.239,"low_usd":75384,"high_usd":148387},"sigma_log":0.1693,"multiple_of_floor":1.4363,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T01:04:35.000Z","block":26352400,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":51,"stale":false,"label":"as of 01:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T01:04:35.000Z","block":26352400,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":51,"stale":false,"label":"as of 01:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":10.1,"beta":0.0958,"term":"tone2","label":"Skin tone 2 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":88.6},{"pct":17,"beta":0.1572,"term":"attr:Smile","label":"Smile","sales_12m":21,"weighted_sales":7}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":41,"date":"2021-08-02","block":12945621,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":317,"adjusted_eth":37.4734},{"eth":43,"date":"2021-08-03","block":12954974,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":44,"adjusted_eth":39.5991},{"eth":68,"date":"2021-08-23","block":13081274,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":639,"adjusted_eth":30.5337},{"eth":70,"date":"2021-12-10","block":13777556,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":3,"adjusted_eth":31.3068},{"eth":72.99,"date":"2021-12-24","block":13869114,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":178,"adjusted_eth":34.1256},{"eth":90.5,"date":"2022-01-25","block":14075895,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":55,"adjusted_eth":35.2828},{"eth":80.01,"date":"2022-02-04","block":14137962,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":9,"adjusted_eth":36.3182},{"eth":78.99,"date":"2022-03-09","block":14350107,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":43,"adjusted_eth":36.3989},{"eth":80,"date":"2022-03-22","block":14435500,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":32,"adjusted_eth":33.3498},{"eth":58,"date":"2024-03-10","block":19406296,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":147,"adjusted_eth":34.568},{"eth":39.99,"date":"2024-11-15","block":21191141,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":297,"adjusted_eth":31.9899},{"eth":46,"date":"2024-12-24","block":21470048,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":246,"adjusted_eth":35.0449},{"eth":49,"date":"2025-04-08","block":22226299,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":280,"adjusted_eth":34.9721},{"eth":56,"date":"2025-05-25","block":22557683,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":531,"adjusted_eth":35.9114},{"eth":37,"date":"2025-11-04","block":23726439,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":180,"adjusted_eth":33.7667}],"comparables":[{"eth":161.5,"date":"2026-09-04","punk":1839,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":159.6612,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":61,"date":"2026-05-08","punk":1118,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":59.7997,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":28.95,"date":"2026-02-23","punk":8389,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.4638,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":28.85,"date":"2026-02-19","punk":8389,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.3719,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.65,"date":"2026-02-06","punk":1769,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.194,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":27.8,"date":"2026-02-04","punk":1769,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.302,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":25.7,"date":"2026-02-03","punk":1769,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.9375,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":38,"date":"2026-10-30","punk":5579,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":40.5285,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":0.2984,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Mustache","sales_12m":51},{"attribute":"Cap Forward","sales_12m":24}],"summary":["Estimate 43.6 ETH (beta), 1σ range 36.9 to 51.7 ETH, 2σ range 31.1 to 61.2 ETH, confidence Low, as of 01:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 01:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +10%, Smile +17%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/704","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}