{"punk":7386,"name":"CryptoPunk #7386","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/7386","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/7386.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":3,"attributes":["Normal Beard Black","Wild Hair","Small Shades"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":38.1527,"usd":92447,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":34.0247,"high_eth":42.7816,"low_usd":82445,"high_usd":103663},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.3434,"high_eth":47.972,"low_usd":73525,"high_usd":116240},"sigma_log":0.1145,"multiple_of_floor":1.2554,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T11:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":38.1527,"usd":92447,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":34.0247,"high_eth":42.7816,"low_usd":82445,"high_usd":103663},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.3434,"high_eth":47.972,"low_usd":73525,"high_usd":116240},"sigma_log":0.1145,"multiple_of_floor":1.2554,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T11:04:35.000Z","block":26355395,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":31,"stale":false,"label":"as of 11:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T11:04:35.000Z","block":26355395,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":31,"stale":false,"label":"as of 11:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":745,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":12.6,"beta":0.1184,"term":"tone3","label":"Skin tone 3 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":66.5}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":32,"date":"2021-03-12","block":12022846,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":238,"adjusted_eth":44.2439},{"eth":144.88,"date":"2022-01-30","block":14105094,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":24,"adjusted_eth":53.8977},{"eth":95,"date":"2022-09-05","block":15475215,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":179,"adjusted_eth":44.4503},{"eth":103.5,"date":"2022-09-24","block":15605164,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":171,"adjusted_eth":49.1848},{"eth":103.95,"date":"2022-12-02","block":16097496,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":83,"adjusted_eth":48.2591},{"eth":107.5,"date":"2022-12-03","block":16105505,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":80,"adjusted_eth":49.7552},{"eth":0,"date":"2022-12-25","block":16258683,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":197,"adjusted_eth":null},{"eth":0,"date":"2022-12-31","block":16308073,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":25,"adjusted_eth":null},{"eth":0,"date":"2023-01-04","block":16331254,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":385,"adjusted_eth":null},{"eth":0,"date":"2023-02-05","block":16562482,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":482,"adjusted_eth":null},{"eth":0,"date":"2023-04-11","block":17026318,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":331,"adjusted_eth":null},{"eth":0,"date":"2023-11-14","block":18567128,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":254,"adjusted_eth":null},{"eth":0,"date":"2024-03-05","block":19367182,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":507,"adjusted_eth":null},{"eth":60,"date":"2025-03-17","block":22066155,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":380,"adjusted_eth":47.5215}],"comparables":[{"eth":45.5,"date":"2026-06-30","punk":2276,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":43.2513,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":37.77,"date":"2026-02-07","punk":1590,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":38.4404,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":50,"date":"2025-07-20","punk":1590,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.1587,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":59.95,"date":"2025-04-07","punk":2276,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":42.7772,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.99,"date":"2026-11-02","punk":9585,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.9696,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":31.45,"date":"2026-11-02","punk":8233,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.4293,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":33,"date":"2026-11-02","punk":2303,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.9783,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":27.62,"date":"2026-11-02","punk":3425,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":27.6018,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":0.1639,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Normal Beard Black","sales_12m":21},{"attribute":"Wild Hair","sales_12m":52},{"attribute":"Small Shades","sales_12m":44}],"summary":["Estimate 38.2 ETH (beta), 1σ range 34.0 to 42.8 ETH, 2σ range 30.3 to 48.0 ETH, confidence Low, as of 11:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 11:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +13%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/7386","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}