{"punk":7404,"name":"CryptoPunk #7404","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/7404","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/7404.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":3,"attributes":["Goat","Cap Forward"],"attribute_count":2,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":34.1077,"usd":82646,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":31.357,"high_eth":37.0997,"low_usd":75981,"high_usd":89896},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":28.8281,"high_eth":40.3541,"low_usd":69853,"high_usd":97781},"sigma_log":0.0841,"multiple_of_floor":1.1223,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T01:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":34.1077,"usd":82646,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":31.357,"high_eth":37.0997,"low_usd":75981,"high_usd":89896},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":28.8281,"high_eth":40.3541,"low_usd":69853,"high_usd":97781},"sigma_log":0.0841,"multiple_of_floor":1.1223,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T01:04:35.000Z","block":26352400,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":52,"stale":false,"label":"as of 01:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T01:04:35.000Z","block":26352400,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":52,"stale":false,"label":"as of 01:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":12.6,"beta":0.1184,"term":"tone3","label":"Skin tone 3 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":66.5},{"pct":-3.5,"beta":-0.0359,"term":"count2","label":"2 attributes (vs 3)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":101.6},{"pct":-7.3,"beta":-0.0762,"term":"attr:Goat","label":"Goat","sales_12m":37,"weighted_sales":16.7}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":18,"date":"2021-05-29","block":12529311,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":353,"adjusted_eth":35.7529},{"eth":46,"date":"2021-08-01","block":12939433,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":144,"adjusted_eth":42.6852},{"eth":49,"date":"2021-08-17","block":13045030,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":44,"adjusted_eth":35.455},{"eth":63,"date":"2021-08-23","block":13081250,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":47,"adjusted_eth":28.2886},{"eth":75,"date":"2021-08-23","block":13083441,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":38,"adjusted_eth":33.6769},{"eth":125,"date":"2021-08-26","block":13103111,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":15,"adjusted_eth":49.6763},{"eth":150,"date":"2021-08-28","block":13114847,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":41,"adjusted_eth":33.1053}],"comparables":[{"eth":55.5,"date":"2025-05-30","punk":4155,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":36.8666,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":52,"date":"2025-05-13","punk":4155,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.9294,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":41.97,"date":"2024-11-19","punk":5664,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":35.4395,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":39.99,"date":"2024-11-15","punk":5664,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.9899,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.45,"date":"2026-11-02","punk":8233,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.4293,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":30.53,"date":"2026-10-28","punk":8233,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.0366,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":53,"date":"2026-10-20","punk":1424,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":51.5085,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":35.17,"date":"2026-10-03","punk":1241,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.3982,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":0.0518,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Cap Forward","sales_12m":24}],"summary":["Estimate 34.1 ETH (beta), 1σ range 31.4 to 37.1 ETH, 2σ range 28.8 to 40.4 ETH, confidence Low, as of 01:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 01:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +13%, 2 attributes (vs 3) -4%, Goat -7%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/7404","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}