{"punk":7421,"name":"CryptoPunk #7421","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/7421","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/7421.svg","type":"Female","skin_tone":4,"attributes":["Mole","Straight Hair","Cigarette"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":36.9873,"usd":89623,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":33.234,"high_eth":41.1644,"low_usd":80529,"high_usd":99745},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.8616,"high_eth":45.8133,"low_usd":72357,"high_usd":111009},"sigma_log":0.107,"multiple_of_floor":1.2171,"n1_eth":30.6779,"confidence":"High","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T06:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":36.9873,"usd":89623,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":33.234,"high_eth":41.1644,"low_usd":80529,"high_usd":99745},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.8616,"high_eth":45.8133,"low_usd":72357,"high_usd":111009},"sigma_log":0.107,"multiple_of_floor":1.2171,"n1_eth":30.6779,"confidence":"High","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T06:04:23.000Z","block":26353897,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":4,"stale":false,"label":"as of 06:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T06:04:23.000Z","block":26353897,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":4,"stale":false,"label":"as of 06:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Female","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.4,"public_asks":407,"punk":6263}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Female 2-3","terms":[{"pct":23.3,"beta":0.2095,"term":"tone4","label":"Skin tone 4 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":14.7},{"pct":-2.2,"beta":-0.0225,"term":"attr:Cigarette","label":"Cigarette","sales_12m":110,"weighted_sales":14.2}],"backtest":{"cell":"Female 2-3","seen":{"n":839,"cover1":0.634,"cover2":0.871,"bias_pct":-0.6,"within10":0.802,"within25":0.952,"MdALE_pct":4.1},"thin":false,"sigma":0.052,"selection":{"n":1056,"cover1":0.688,"cover2":0.916,"bias_pct":-1.5,"within10":0.841,"within25":0.968,"MdALE_pct":4}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.29,"date":"2017-08-03","block":4112573,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":7,"adjusted_eth":35.2524},{"eth":1.25,"date":"2019-06-16","block":7970866,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":54,"adjusted_eth":84.4167},{"eth":1.1,"date":"2020-08-05","block":10600167,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":60,"adjusted_eth":42.3152},{"eth":3,"date":"2020-09-20","block":10896310,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":218,"adjusted_eth":42.4047},{"eth":7,"date":"2020-09-27","block":10945522,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":195,"adjusted_eth":65.055},{"eth":16,"date":"2021-02-20","block":11893031,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":216,"adjusted_eth":35.9114},{"eth":18,"date":"2021-07-01","block":12740710,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":162,"adjusted_eth":32.4641}],"comparables":[{"eth":31.45,"date":"2026-08-19","punk":5917,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":29.6822,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.2,"date":"2026-07-25","punk":5917,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.2464,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":26.979,"date":"2025-12-22","punk":5064,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.3889,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":27.1,"date":"2025-12-22","punk":5064,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.5252,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":44.44,"date":"2025-09-03","punk":6933,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.1419,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":49.99,"date":"2025-08-17","punk":6933,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.39,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":46.2,"date":"2025-08-14","punk":6933,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":27.6954,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":53.99,"date":"2025-08-09","punk":8774,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.8482,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.187,"type_multiple":{"sales":440,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0095,"median_multiple":1.0095},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Mole","sales_12m":89},{"attribute":"Straight Hair","sales_12m":33}],"summary":["Estimate 37.0 ETH (beta), 1σ range 33.2 to 41.2 ETH, 2σ range 29.9 to 45.8 ETH, confidence High, as of 06:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 06:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (440 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Skin tone 4 (vs 1) +23%, Cigarette -2%.","Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","In the backtest, Female 2-3 sales landed within ±4% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±4.1% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/7421","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}