{"punk":7440,"name":"CryptoPunk #7440","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/7440","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/7440.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":4,"attributes":["Frown","Shadow Beard","Knitted Cap"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-06","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-06 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-07T00:20:34.586Z","fingerprint_sha256":"76e58439a099cc8cd66c5865a3915bee905a819a57c55e8ad375b9f5abdc46a1"},"estimate":{"eth":40.5904,"usd":90751,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":35.3439,"high_eth":46.6158,"low_usd":79021,"high_usd":104222},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.7755,"high_eth":53.5356,"low_usd":68807,"high_usd":119694},"sigma_log":0.1384,"multiple_of_floor":1.3356,"n1_eth":32.3833,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-07T04:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":40.5904,"usd":90751,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":35.3439,"high_eth":46.6158,"low_usd":79021,"high_usd":104222},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.7755,"high_eth":53.5356,"low_usd":68807,"high_usd":119694},"sigma_log":0.1384,"multiple_of_floor":1.3356,"n1_eth":32.3833,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"76e58439a099cc8cd66c5865a3915bee905a819a57c55e8ad375b9f5abdc46a1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-07T04:04:35.000Z","block":26360471,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1161,"age_minutes":12,"stale":false,"label":"as of 04:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2235.7745744284666,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-07","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-07T04:04:35.000Z","block":26360471,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1161,"age_minutes":12,"stale":false,"label":"as of 04:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-07","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.5,"beta":0.044,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":19.9,"beta":0.1819,"term":"tone4","label":"Skin tone 4 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":25.5}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.23,"date":"2019-08-22","block":8403003,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":38,"adjusted_eth":23.299},{"eth":0.95,"date":"2020-08-29","block":10755849,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":276,"adjusted_eth":36.0881},{"eth":20,"date":"2021-05-28","block":12522738,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":333,"adjusted_eth":39.7255},{"eth":27.69,"date":"2024-08-19","block":20563371,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":158,"adjusted_eth":36.9241},{"eth":32.98,"date":"2024-08-21","block":20575033,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":37,"adjusted_eth":36.2482},{"eth":46,"date":"2025-03-15","block":22049815,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":8,"adjusted_eth":36.4142},{"eth":39.5,"date":"2026-05-12","block":25081728,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":346,"adjusted_eth":40.5816},{"eth":40.4,"date":"2026-11-01","block":26321905,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":16,"adjusted_eth":40.3734}],"comparables":[{"eth":50,"date":"2025-09-16","punk":8781,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":31.0419,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":38,"date":"2026-08-12","punk":6438,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":36.4067,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":34.92,"date":"2026-08-03","punk":5322,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.8958,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":39,"date":"2026-07-21","punk":4715,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":37.0378,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":35,"date":"2026-05-25","punk":2648,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.0087,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.15,"date":"2026-05-12","punk":4715,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.0578,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.5,"date":"2026-05-01","punk":4715,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.93,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":38.69,"date":"2026-02-02","punk":3355,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":42.0977,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.2259,"type_multiple":{"sales":773,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0656,"median_multiple":1.0656},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Frown","sales_12m":40},{"attribute":"Shadow Beard","sales_12m":55},{"attribute":"Knitted Cap","sales_12m":49}],"summary":["Estimate 40.6 ETH (beta), 1σ range 35.3 to 46.6 ETH, 2σ range 30.8 to 53.5 ETH, confidence High, as of 04:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-06).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 04:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-06.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (773 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 4 (vs 1) +20%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[{"sale_day":"2026-11-01","estimate_date":"2026-10-31","price_eth":40.4,"est_eth":41.0396,"low1":35.5755,"high1":47.343,"low2":30.8389,"high2":54.6146,"z":-0.11,"confidence":"High","source":"native-buy","prospective":true,"model_version":"est-v2-202610","z_text":"0.1σ below the estimate"}],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/7440","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}