{"punk":7612,"name":"CryptoPunk #7612","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/7612","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/7612.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":2,"attributes":["Earring","Vampire Hair"],"attribute_count":2,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":31.4375,"usd":76176,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":28.9807,"high_eth":34.1025,"low_usd":70223,"high_usd":82633},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":26.716,"high_eth":36.9935,"low_usd":64735,"high_usd":89638},"sigma_log":0.0814,"multiple_of_floor":1.0345,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T06:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":31.4375,"usd":76176,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":28.9807,"high_eth":34.1025,"low_usd":70223,"high_usd":82633},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":26.716,"high_eth":36.9935,"low_usd":64735,"high_usd":89638},"sigma_log":0.0814,"multiple_of_floor":1.0345,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T06:04:23.000Z","block":26353897,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":41,"stale":false,"label":"as of 06:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T06:04:23.000Z","block":26353897,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":41,"stale":false,"label":"as of 06:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":{"ask_eth":300,"ask_usd":670732,"z":27.71,"z_text":"27.7σ above the estimate","listed_since":"2023-12-14T21:45:47.000Z","days_listed":1057},"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":10.1,"beta":0.0958,"term":"tone2","label":"Skin tone 2 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":88.6},{"pct":-3.5,"beta":-0.0359,"term":"count2","label":"2 attributes (vs 3)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":101.6},{"pct":-2.4,"beta":-0.0241,"term":"attr:Earring","label":"Earring","sales_12m":303,"weighted_sales":70.6},{"pct":-10.5,"beta":-0.1109,"term":"attr:Vampire Hair","label":"Vampire Hair","sales_12m":18,"weighted_sales":6.5}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":81.99,"date":"2023-03-15","block":16832473,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":411,"adjusted_eth":37.0509}],"comparables":[{"eth":28,"date":"2025-12-29","punk":8139,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":31.7271,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":52.0799,"date":"2025-10-08","punk":8139,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.6466,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":48.9714,"date":"2025-10-06","punk":8139,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.5593,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":50,"date":"2025-08-22","punk":8139,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.0102,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":57.33,"date":"2025-07-28","punk":5512,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.276,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":54.5,"date":"2025-07-28","punk":5512,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":30.6828,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":56.88,"date":"2025-07-26","punk":2688,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.2361,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":48.5,"date":"2025-07-20","punk":4852,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.194,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":-0.0297,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[],"summary":["Estimate 31.4 ETH (beta), 1σ range 29.0 to 34.1 ETH, 2σ range 26.7 to 37.0 ETH, confidence Low, as of 06:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 06:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +10%, 2 attributes (vs 3) -4%, Earring -2%, Vampire Hair -11%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/7612","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}