{"punk":7633,"name":"CryptoPunk #7633","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/7633","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/7633.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Cap","Clown Eyes Blue"],"attribute_count":2,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":30.1515,"usd":73060,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":27.622,"high_eth":32.9128,"low_usd":66930,"high_usd":79750},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":25.3046,"high_eth":35.9269,"low_usd":61315,"high_usd":87054},"sigma_log":0.0876,"multiple_of_floor":0.9922,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T03:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.1515,"usd":73060,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":27.622,"high_eth":32.9128,"low_usd":66930,"high_usd":79750},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":25.3046,"high_eth":35.9269,"low_usd":61315,"high_usd":87054},"sigma_log":0.0876,"multiple_of_floor":0.9922,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T03:04:35.000Z","block":26352999,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":49,"stale":false,"label":"as of 03:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T03:04:35.000Z","block":26352999,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":49,"stale":false,"label":"as of 03:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":{"ask_eth":114.49,"ask_usd":255974,"z":15.23,"z_text":"15.2σ above the estimate","listed_since":"2021-09-01T12:52:35.000Z","days_listed":1891},"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":-3.5,"beta":-0.0359,"term":"count2","label":"2 attributes (vs 3)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":101.6},{"pct":-7.8,"beta":-0.081,"term":"attr:Clown Eyes Blue","label":"Clown Eyes Blue","sales_12m":65,"weighted_sales":6.3}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":2.9,"date":"2020-09-26","block":10940710,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":51,"adjusted_eth":29.377},{"eth":13.97,"date":"2021-02-18","block":11882256,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":52,"adjusted_eth":31.3783},{"eth":21.5,"date":"2021-03-18","block":12062924,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":248,"adjusted_eth":30.1794},{"eth":21.6,"date":"2021-03-19","block":12071589,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":181,"adjusted_eth":31.2732},{"eth":24.99,"date":"2021-03-25","block":12105861,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":41,"adjusted_eth":38.5506},{"eth":16,"date":"2021-04-04","block":12170382,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":5,"adjusted_eth":34.7314},{"eth":22.88,"date":"2021-04-28","block":12329464,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":154,"adjusted_eth":32.3557},{"eth":99.98,"date":"2021-09-01","block":13139892,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":87,"adjusted_eth":31.9864}],"comparables":[{"eth":31.45,"date":"2026-11-02","punk":8233,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.4293,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":30.53,"date":"2026-10-28","punk":8233,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.0366,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":33.01,"date":"2026-10-09","punk":3667,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.8569,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":31.67,"date":"2026-10-08","punk":3667,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.3878,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":33.29,"date":"2026-09-22","punk":3667,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.1959,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":36.8,"date":"2026-09-22","punk":4241,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.4851,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":30.99,"date":"2026-09-21","punk":3667,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.3802,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":46.5,"date":"2026-09-19","punk":5034,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":47.5963,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":-0.0715,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Cap","sales_12m":38}],"summary":["Estimate 30.2 ETH (beta), 1σ range 27.6 to 32.9 ETH, 2σ range 25.3 to 35.9 ETH, confidence High, as of 03:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 03:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, 2 attributes (vs 3) -4%, Clown Eyes Blue -8%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/7633","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}