{"punk":7647,"name":"CryptoPunk #7647","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/7647","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/7647.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Do-rag","Clown Nose"],"attribute_count":2,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":28.9367,"usd":70116,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":26.2399,"high_eth":31.9108,"low_usd":63581,"high_usd":77322},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":23.7943,"high_eth":35.1905,"low_usd":57656,"high_usd":85269},"sigma_log":0.0978,"multiple_of_floor":0.9522,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T07:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":28.9367,"usd":70116,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":26.2399,"high_eth":31.9108,"low_usd":63581,"high_usd":77322},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":23.7943,"high_eth":35.1905,"low_usd":57656,"high_usd":85269},"sigma_log":0.0978,"multiple_of_floor":0.9522,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T07:04:35.000Z","block":26354196,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":44,"stale":false,"label":"as of 07:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T07:04:35.000Z","block":26354196,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":44,"stale":false,"label":"as of 07:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":-3.5,"beta":-0.0359,"term":"count2","label":"2 attributes (vs 3)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":101.6},{"pct":-5.5,"beta":-0.0565,"term":"attr:Do-rag","label":"Do-rag","sales_12m":51,"weighted_sales":17.8},{"pct":-6.4,"beta":-0.0656,"term":"attr:Clown Nose","label":"Clown Nose","sales_12m":25,"weighted_sales":6.1}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.5,"date":"2020-01-07","block":9231928,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":101,"adjusted_eth":27.6273},{"eth":0.75,"date":"2020-05-17","block":10080238,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":81,"adjusted_eth":28.4906},{"eth":64,"date":"2022-11-23","block":16034235,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":381,"adjusted_eth":29.4914},{"eth":65.46,"date":"2022-12-03","block":16100594,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":208,"adjusted_eth":30.2974}],"comparables":[{"eth":33.01,"date":"2026-10-09","punk":3667,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.8569,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":31.67,"date":"2026-10-08","punk":3667,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.3878,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":33,"date":"2026-10-02","punk":2224,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":30.3992,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":36,"date":"2026-09-24","punk":192,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.4737,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":34.45,"date":"2026-09-23","punk":4059,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.7922,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":33.29,"date":"2026-09-22","punk":3667,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.1959,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":31,"date":"2026-09-22","punk":3960,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.05,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":31,"date":"2026-09-21","punk":2996,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.39,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":-0.1126,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[],"summary":["Estimate 28.9 ETH (beta), 1σ range 26.2 to 31.9 ETH, 2σ range 23.8 to 35.2 ETH, confidence Low, as of 07:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 07:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, 2 attributes (vs 3) -4%, Do-rag -6%, Clown Nose -6%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/7647","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}