{"punk":7656,"name":"CryptoPunk #7656","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/7656","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/7656.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":3,"attributes":["Handlebars","Beanie"],"attribute_count":2,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":34.5447,"usd":83705,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":31.6898,"high_eth":37.6568,"low_usd":76787,"high_usd":91246},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.0709,"high_eth":41.0492,"low_usd":70441,"high_usd":99466},"sigma_log":0.0863,"multiple_of_floor":1.1367,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T04:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":34.5447,"usd":83705,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":31.6898,"high_eth":37.6568,"low_usd":76787,"high_usd":91246},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.0709,"high_eth":41.0492,"low_usd":70441,"high_usd":99466},"sigma_log":0.0863,"multiple_of_floor":1.1367,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T04:04:23.000Z","block":26353297,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":43,"stale":false,"label":"as of 04:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T04:04:23.000Z","block":26353297,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":43,"stale":false,"label":"as of 04:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":12.6,"beta":0.1184,"term":"tone3","label":"Skin tone 3 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":66.5},{"pct":-3.5,"beta":-0.0359,"term":"count2","label":"2 attributes (vs 3)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":101.6},{"pct":-6.1,"beta":-0.0634,"term":"attr:Handlebars","label":"Handlebars","sales_12m":32,"weighted_sales":11.7}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.6,"date":"2017-08-03","block":4113782,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":53,"adjusted_eth":72.936},{"eth":18,"date":"2020-05-23","block":10122698,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":62,"adjusted_eth":547.02},{"eth":60,"date":"2021-02-14","block":11856500,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":153,"adjusted_eth":221.0182},{"eth":75,"date":"2021-02-19","block":11889157,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":279,"adjusted_eth":180.1779},{"eth":285.69,"date":"2021-12-24","block":13869115,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":159,"adjusted_eth":133.5711},{"eth":374.95,"date":"2022-01-26","block":14081495,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":72,"adjusted_eth":143.3299}],"comparables":[{"eth":30,"date":"2026-10-29","punk":9018,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.4444,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":33,"date":"2026-10-14","punk":3378,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.0508,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":35,"date":"2026-09-22","punk":2004,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.7983,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":31,"date":"2026-09-21","punk":2996,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.39,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":33.5,"date":"2026-09-17","punk":1607,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.2898,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":36.95,"date":"2026-08-21","punk":9018,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.6043,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":32,"date":"2026-08-13","punk":2724,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.6583,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":41.75,"date":"2026-08-07","punk":1223,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":39.2205,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":0.0645,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Beanie","sales_12m":1}],"summary":["Estimate 34.5 ETH (beta), 1σ range 31.7 to 37.7 ETH, 2σ range 29.1 to 41.0 ETH, confidence Low, as of 04:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 04:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +13%, 2 attributes (vs 3) -4%, Handlebars -6%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/7656","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}