{"punk":7665,"name":"CryptoPunk #7665","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/7665","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/7665.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":3,"attributes":["Luxurious Beard","Earring","Top Hat","Small Shades"],"attribute_count":4,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-04","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-05T00:20:43.410Z","fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"estimate":{"eth":48.5064,"usd":110285,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":38.8941,"high_eth":60.4942,"low_usd":88431,"high_usd":137541},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":31.1867,"high_eth":75.4447,"low_usd":70907,"high_usd":171533},"sigma_log":0.2209,"multiple_of_floor":1.5961,"n1_eth":32.3769,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-04","eth":47.8679,"usd":108834,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":38.3822,"high_eth":59.698,"low_usd":87267,"high_usd":135731},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.7762,"high_eth":74.4517,"low_usd":69974,"high_usd":169275},"sigma_log":0.2209,"multiple_of_floor":1.5961,"n1_eth":31.9507,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":29.99,"fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","block":26351802,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":51,"stale":false,"label":"as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-04","eth":29.99,"eth_usd":2273.6272778684292,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","block":26351802,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":51,"stale":false,"label":"as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":{"ask_eth":175,"ask_usd":390305,"z":5.81,"z_text":"5.8σ above the estimate","listed_since":"2025-09-07T04:23:47.000Z","days_listed":424},"argument":{"cell":"Male 4+","terms":[{"pct":4.7,"beta":0.0457,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":12.6,"beta":0.1184,"term":"tone3","label":"Skin tone 3 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":67},{"pct":-2.4,"beta":-0.0241,"term":"attr:Earring","label":"Earring","sales_12m":306,"weighted_sales":71.1},{"pct":30.2,"beta":0.2642,"term":"attr:Top Hat","label":"Top Hat","sales_12m":6,"weighted_sales":1.8}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 4+","seen":{"n":276,"cover1":0.736,"cover2":0.931,"bias_pct":1,"within10":0.71,"within25":0.928,"MdALE_pct":5.6},"thin":false,"sigma":0.089,"selection":{"n":293,"cover1":0.683,"cover2":0.932,"bias_pct":1.1,"within10":0.662,"within25":0.949,"MdALE_pct":6.9}},"own_sales":[{"eth":80,"date":"2021-04-16","block":12248458,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":49,"adjusted_eth":124.6338},{"eth":108,"date":"2021-07-30","block":12929527,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":280,"adjusted_eth":124.9583}],"comparables":[{"eth":130,"date":"2026-05-19","punk":8870,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":114.7351,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":32,"date":"2026-10-16","punk":8871,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.9574,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":39.88,"date":"2026-09-24","punk":4714,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":35.5002,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":60.45,"date":"2026-09-23","punk":1941,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":53.3205,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":34,"date":"2026-09-23","punk":8871,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.99,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":47,"date":"2026-08-24","punk":9478,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":43.4504,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":38,"date":"2026-05-20","punk":4714,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.538,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":34.25,"date":"2026-05-11","punk":4953,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.5961,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.4043,"type_multiple":{"sales":778,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0654,"median_multiple":1.0654},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Luxurious Beard","sales_12m":41},{"attribute":"Small Shades","sales_12m":46}],"summary":["Estimate 48.5 ETH (beta), 1σ range 38.9 to 60.5 ETH, 2σ range 31.2 to 75.4 ETH, confidence Low, as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 23:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (778 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +13%, Earring -2%, Top Hat +30%.","In the backtest, Male 4+ sales landed within ±6.9% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.6% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/7665","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}